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Important NZD Pairs: Technical Outlook



Following its bounce from 0.6950-60 horizontal support-zone, comprising 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – July upside, the NZDUSD managed to surpass a week's high; however, pair's incapacity to clear the 0.7120-25 presently drags it to 0.7050 immediate support. Should the pair dip below 0.7050, the 0.7015 and the 0.6960-50 again comes into play, which if broken can trigger its fresh south-run towards 0.6830-35 zone, including 50% Fibo and six-month old ascending trend-line support; though 100-day SMA level of 0.6930 might offer intermediate support. Meanwhile, pair's additional run beyond 0.7120-25 needs to confront with 0.7170-80 before aiming the 0.7200 round figure. Given the pair extend its north-run above 0.7200, the 0.7240 and the 0.7280 are likely buffers that it could avail ahead of printing a new high beyond 0.7325.


EURNZD's failure to decline below 1.5110 triggered its short-term pullback towards printing nearly a month high; though, a downward slanting trend-line, connecting May highs, confined its further upside. From the current levels, the pair is likely to again challenge the 1.5730 trend-line level, breaking which it can rise to 1.5840 and the 1.5920. If the pair successfully trades above 1.5920, chances of its additional run-up to fill the 1.6100 gap can't be denied. However, pair's decline below 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – July drop, near 1.5530, can trigger its south-run to 1.5400 and the 1.5330. Should the pair refrains to reverse from 1.5330, it can again challenge the 1.5110 and the 1.5100 mark, clearing which it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards 61.8% FE level around 1.4720.


NZDJPY's recent bounce from 73.70 currently confronts with 100-day SMA level of 74.80, indicating a fresh round of pullback towards 73.70 and 73.20. If the pair drops below 73.20, the 72.80, 72.20 and the 71.20 are likely downside numbers that it needs to visit prior to testing the six-month old descending trend-channel support of 70.50. Alternatively, a clear break above 74.80 can show 75.40 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of December 2015 – June 2016 decline, near 76.20. Should the pair surpasses 76.20, channel resistance of 76.50 and the 200-day SMA level of 76.90, become strong resistances to observe.


Even if the 0.9365-75 horizontal resistance dragged the NZDCAD down, short-term ascending trend-line, at 0.9295 now, restricted the pair downside. At present, the pair is likely visiting the trend-line support, breaking which 0.9270 and the 0.9210 can quickly be flashed on the chart. If at all the pair keep declining below 0.9210, it can revisit 0.9170 and the 0.9070 before the 0.9000 psychological magnet flips the prices. On the upside, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – July up-move, at 93.50, adjacent to 0.9365-75, are likely upside levels that the pair needs to confront with. Should the pair surpasses 0.9375, it could run-up to 0.9420 and the 9450 horizontal resistance before challenging the current month highs of 0.9550.

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Source: https://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/important-nzd-pairs-technical-outlook
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