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Important AUD Pairs: Technical Update



Ever since the AUDUSD bounced-off from 100-day SMA and an ascending trend-line support-confluence during early days of the last week, the pair kept surging and marked the fresh four-month highs on Wednesday by breaking the 0.7680-90 horizontal resistance. However, the 61.8% FE of its late-May to mid-July upside, at 0.7750, might hinder the pair's additional upside before it could aim for the April highs of 0.7835. Given the pair manage to surpass the 0.7835, it becomes capable enough to fuel present upward trajectory towards 100% FE level of 0.7955. Though, overbought RSI might drag the pair to 0.7645 on a daily close below 0.7680, breaking which 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – April rally, at 0.7595, and the mentioned TL support of 0.7530, adjacent to 0.7490 100-day SMA level, can be witnessed on the chart. Should the pair declines below 0.7490, the 0.7400 is likely next stop for the Bears to breathe prior to confronting 0.7345-30 support-zone, which includes 200-day SMA, a broader upward slanting trend-line and 50% Fibo level.


Unlike the AUDUSD, the AUDJPY is presently struggling to clear resistance-line of a short-term descending trend-channel, at 78.40 now, breaking which 78.90 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of March – June drop, at 79.55, could act as intermediate resistance prior to its run towards four-month old descending trend-line resistance around 80.00 psychological magnet. If the pair manage to surpass 80.00, the 80.60 and the 61.8% Fibo level of 81.25 might please the Bulls prior to revisiting the 81.55-60 horizontal resistance-zone, which if broken could trigger the pair's northward journey to 82.50 and the 83.00 resistance levels. Meanwhile, 38.2% Fibo level of 77.80, the 77.40 and the 76.50 are nearby supports that the pair may flash during its pullback. Should the correction drags the pair below 76.50, the 23.6% Fibo mark of 75.80 and the 75.50 channel support could confine its additional downside, failing to which makes the pair vulnerable enough to test 74.50 support mark.


On Tuesday, the AUDNZD failed to sustain its week-long up-move by reversing from 100-day SMA. The pair stretched the same pullbacks on Wednesday and indicates a quick test to 1.0650 horizontal support before reaching to 1.0600 and the 1.0565 downside numbers. However, pair's additional weakness below 1.0565 can be confined by the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – July dip and the 50-day SMA area of 1.0550-45, breaking which the pair can drop to 1.0465-60 support marks. Alternatively, a daily close above 38.2% Fibo level of 1.0700 can again fuel the pair to challenge the 1.0750 number, comprising 100-day SMA level, breaking which 1.0770-80 horizontal resistance comes into play. Given the pair surpasses 1.0780 on a daily closing basis, it can run-up to 50% Fibo level of 1.0825 and the 1.0850 resistances prior to challenging 1.0900 round figure resistance.


AUDCHF's reversal from 100-day SMA enabled it to conquer with the 0.7555-60 horizontal resistance at present, which if broken can quickly fuel the pair to test 0.7600 round figure resistance, near to April highs. Moreover, pair's additional north-run beyond 0.7600 might stop around 0.7650 before testing the 61.8% FE of its August 2015 – April 2016 upside, near 0.7690. On the downside, pair's failure to close above 0.7560 can fetch the prices to 0.7500 and the 0.7450 support numbers while additional downside below 0.7450 can print 0.7390 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 0.7345. Given the pair keep declining below 0.7345, it becomes weaker enough to re-test 100-day SMA level of 0.7295, clearing which can flash 0.7230 on the chart.

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Source: https://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/important-aud-pairs-technical-update
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