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Important AUD Pairs: Technical Outlook



While Friday's wild moves damaged the AUDUSD, the pair recently bounced-off from short-term ascending trend-line support and is clearing the 100-day SMA at present, signaling immediate break of 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – April upside, near 0.7450. Given the pair maintains the up-move beyond 0.7450, the 0.7495 – 0.7500 and the 0.7530 are likely following resistances that it could witness prior to witnessing 0.7550 and the 0.7630 descending trend-line mark. However, pair's inability to close above 100-day SMA mark of 0.7430 can continue favoring a pullback to 0.7360 and the trend-line support, also including 50% Fibo level, around 0.7330. Given the pair drops below 0.7330, the 0.7280 can act as intermediate halt during its decline to five-month old ascending trend-line support of 0.7230, which if broken on a closing basis, can further drag the pair to 0.7130 and the 0.7100 round figure mark support.


Following a fortnight old descending trend-line resistance, the EURAUD presently indicates a re-test of 1.4800 – 1.4795 horizontal support-area; however, a drop below 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – May advance, near 1.4890 becomes necessary. Should the pair declines below 1.4795, it might hold at 1.4700 round figure mark before aiming the 1.4630 and the 1.4530 support levels while its extended downside below 1.4530 can make the pair to revisit the late-April lows, around 1.4430. Alternatively, 1.4930 and the 1.4980 can provide nearby resistance to restrict the pair's immediate upside prior to its heads-up to mentioned trend-line level around 1.5000 psychological magnet. If at all the pair clears the 1.5000, the 1.5040 and the 1.5100 are its likely following stops to observe.


AUDCAD's U-turn from 0.9580-75 presently enables the pair to confront with 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its September – December 2015 upside, near 0.9665, clearing which it can again challenge the 200-day SMA level of 0.9700. If the pair closes above 0.9700, it can accelerate the up-move to 0.9745-50 before aiming the 38.2% Fibo, at 0.9770 now, and the 0.9800 resistance, which becomes a crucial level for the pair traders to watch. On the downside, 0.9620 and the 0.9580-75 can continue providing nearby supports to the pair, breaking which it can decline to 61.8% Fibo of 0.9540 and then to short-term ascending trend-line support of 0.9515. Should the pair drops below 0.9515, also clears the 0.9500 mark, chances of its further south-run to 0.9430 and then to 0.9400 can't be denied.


Ever since the AUDNZD portrayed a gap-down opening during early-month, it kept following the symmetrical triangle formation which now has 1.0430 as support and 1.0495 – 1.0500 as resistance, which also includes 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its present month downside. The pair now aims to visit the 1.0430 support, which if broken can drag it to month's low around 1.0400 prior to printing 1.0360 and 1.0340 on the chart. If the pair declines below 1.0340, it becomes weaker enough to test 1.0260 support. Meanwhile, 1.0475 and the 1.0495 – 1.0500 are likely resistances that the pair trader should observe. Given the pair manage to clear 1.0500, it's quick run-up to 1.0530 and the 1.0550 becomes clear. Moreover, pair's successful trading above 1.0550 indicates its ability to put 1.0600 mark.

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Source: https://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/important-aud-pairs-technical-outlook-1
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