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Weekly Outlook: May 20 – May 24: RBA, Fed, ECB Minutes; EZ PMIs and EU Elections


Whilst no major central bank meets to decide on policy this week, three of them will release the minutes of their latest gatherings. Those Banks are the RBA, the Fed and the ECB. With regards to economic data, investors will focus on Eurozone’s preliminary PMIs for May, as they try to assess whether the ECB could introduce any other policy measures besides the already announced new round of TLTROs. The UK CPIs and retail sales for April are also coming out, but we expect GBP-traders to keep their gaze locked on the UK political landscape and the EU Parliament elections.

Monday appears to be a relatively light day in terms of economic data and releases. The only top-tier indicator on the agenda is Japan’s GDP for Q1 and is already out. The qoq growth rate ticked up to +0.5% from +0.4%, beating estimates of a 0.1% contraction. This pushed the yoy rate up to +2.1% from +1.6%.

On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, the RBA releases the minutes of its latest policy gathering. At that meeting, the Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged at +1.50%, with the tone of the accompanying statement little changed. The Aussie rallied at the time of the announcement, perhaps as, heading into the meeting, there was some speculation for a rate cut.

ASX interbank cash rate futures

The minutes of the previous meeting revealed that members agreed that the likelihood of a hike was low and that a rate cut would be appropriate if inflation does not move higher and...

Read the full financial markets weekly outlook on JFD Research.

JFD Review

Source: https://www.jfdbank.com/en/research/rba-fed-ecb-minutes-ez-pmis-and-eu-elections-20190520
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