Compared with the week just past with a number of major banks policy meetings, the week we just entered seems to be quieter but not indifferent to the market. A plethora of macroeconomic data is scheduled but none of them is a strong market driver event.
The RBNZ has a policy meeting while there are many speeches scheduled from various Fed members and Fed Chair Yellen.
Today, the German Buba monthly report will be published in the morning, while later a speech from German Buba President Fr Jens Weidman is scheduled. No data is expected from the Euro area, out of the labour cost for Q4 which has been released a while ago. In the U.S., Chicago Fed National activity index is coming out and later, FOMC member Charles Evans will give a speech. At 23:30 GMT U.S. President Donald Trump will hold an event at Louisville, including a press conference. The only spotlight event from U.K. is also a speech from BoE MPC member Andrew Haldane.
Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the last policy meeting while Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will publish the economic forecasts for the major GDP components.
On Tuesday, the spotlight events of the day will be the U.K. CPI report early in the morning and the few speeches from Fed members. The U.K. CPI is expected show that the consumer prices picked up by 2.1% in February from 1.8% before and the core consumer prices by 1.8% versus 1.6% in January. It’s worth mentioning that BoE’s inflation target is 2%. The retail price index for February is forecasted to show a rise to 2.9% from 2.6% in January while public sector net borrowing is also coming out and is predicted to reveal the debt of the U.K. government expanded to a deficit of £2.500B from a surplus of £9.824B before. All the above reports will probably have an impact on the British pound as U.K. is taking the path to exit the European Union and Bank of England members will try to keep the economy financial stable through the process that will lead to Brexit.
In the U.S., Fed’s William Dudley, Esther George and Loretta Mater have scheduled speeches that will be monitored by traders to gauge when policymakers plan to raise rates again following last week’s 25bp rate hike and the forecast for two more raises in this year.
Wednesday is quiet overall with limited affecting data. Eurozone’s current account is coming out while U.S. housing price index for January and existing home sales for February will be released. Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin report will attract some attention while the big event of the day is Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision. The central bank is not expected to change its interest rates from 1.75%, however, traders will expect to hear how the fall of the oil prices affected the economy.
On Thursday, the focus will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech at 12:00 GMT. Early in the European morning, Eurozone’s Economic Bulletin will be published. U.K. retail sales are expected to show an expansion of 2.6% in February from 1.5% before. The U.S. weekly jobless claims and the new home sales are coming out. Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence is predicted to have improved to -5.8 in March versus -6.2 the previous month. New Zealand’s trade report will be published including imports, exports and trade balance for February.
On Friday, both the Markit services and manufacturing PMIs for U.S., Eurozone and Germany, are expected as well as U.S. durable goods orders. Markit PMIs are forecasted to show that Eurozone’s manufacturing slipped to 55.3 in March from 55.4 and the services sector to 55.4 from 55.5 before. The U.S. services sector is expected to show an expansion of the sector to 54.0 versus 53.8 before, while no forecast is available for the manufacturing sector. U.S. durable goods orders are predicted to have edged lower to 1.2% from 2.0% in January. The Canadian inflation report is also scheduled for release.
