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Weekly Outlook: June 10 – June 14: US CPIs, UK and Australia Jobs Data, SNB meeting

JFD

Following hints from several Fed officials that they could cut rates, as well as Friday’s disappointing NFPs, investors are now likely to turn attention to the US CPIs, as they try to figure out when the Fed may consider to start acting. The UK and Australian job reports will also be released. However, with regards to the UK, we expect investors to stay more focused on the political landscape and especially, on headlines pointing to who could be the nation’s new PM. Australia’s employment numbers are likely to attract more attention, as they could prove determinant with regards to the RBA’s future course of action. We also have an SNB meeting, but we don’t expect any change in monetary policy.

On Monday, markets in Australia will be closed in celebration of the Queen’s Birthday. Switzerland’s, Norway’s and Germany’s bourses will also stay closed due to the Whit Monday.

We get data from the UK, Canada and the US. Kicking off with the UK, industrial and manufacturing production data for April are due to be released, as well as the monthly GDP and the trade balance for the month. Both industrial and manufacturing productions are expected to have slid 0.7% and 1.0%, after rising 0.7% and 0.9% in March, something that would drive the yoy rates down to +1.0% and +2.2%, from +1.3% and +2.6% respectively. This is supported by the manufacturing PMI for the month, which slid to 53.1 from 55.1. No forecast is currently available for the monthly GDP, while the nation’s trade deficit is expected to have narrowed somewhat, to GBP 12.96bn from GBP 13.65bn.

UK industrial production vs manufacturing PMI

Given that we already got the PMIs for May, we believe that aforementioned April data are unlikely to prove major market movers. The uncertainty surrounding the UK’s future relationship with...

Read the full financial markets weekly outlook on JFD Research.

JFD Review

Source: https://www.jfdbank.com/en/research/us-cpis-uk-and-australia-jobs-data-snb-meeting-20190610
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