We have a very heavy week ahead of us, with three central bank meetings on the agenda: The Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates, and while no policy change is expected by the ECB, following last week’s remarks from several policymakers, investors will be waiting for signals or hints on what happens to QE after September. As for the BoJ, no major changes are expected. US and UK inflation data, as well as UK’s employment report, will also be in focus.
On Monday, during the European morning, we get the UK industrial and manufacturing production data for April. Expectations are for industrial production to have accelerated somewhat, to +0.2% mom from +0.1% in March, but this would drive the yoy rate slightly lower, to +2.7% from +2.9%. Manufacturing production is anticipated to have rebounded to +0.3% mom from -0.1%, which could push the yoy manufacturing rate up to +3.1% from +2.9%. That said, bearing in mind that the manufacturing PMI for the month declined to 53.9 from 54.9 in March, we see the risks surrounding the manufacturing production as tilted to the downside. The nation’s trade balance is also coming out and expectations are for the trade deficit to have narrowed somewhat.
On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, Australia’s NAB business survey for May is scheduled to be released, alongside the nation’s home loans for April. No forecast is available for the NAB survey, while home loans are expected to...
According to the Markit UK Report on Jobs for the month, starting salaries for permanent workers continued to rise, with the rate of inflation picking up from March, while rates of pay for temporary staff rose to the...
Read the full financial markets weekly outlook on JFD Research.