Following a volatile Friday, where stock indices tumbled and safe-havens surged due to further escalation in the US-China trade war, this week appears to be a relatively light one, at least in terms of scheduled events and economic indicators. We get the German and Eurozone’s preliminary inflation data for August, where soft prints could add to speculation that the ECB would indeed proceed with a strong stimulus package in September. From the US, we get the core PCE index for July and 2nd estimate of GDP for Q2. We get GDP data for Q2 from Canada and Norway as well.
On Monday, during the European morning, we get Germany’s Ifo survey for August. The current assessment index is expected to have declined to 98.6 from 99.4 in July, which was the first dip below 100 since March 2010. The expectations print is forecast to have fallen as well, to 91.5 from 92.2, while the business climate index is anticipated to have slid to 95.1 from 95.7. The case for lower Ifo indices is supported by the ZEW survey for the month, the indices of which slid by more than anticipated.
Later in the day, the US durable goods orders for July are due to be released. The headline rate is anticipated to have slid to +1.0% mom from +1.9% in June, while the core one is forecast to have declined to +0.2% mom from +1.0%. However, these numbers would drive the headline yoy rate up to 0.9% from -1.3% and keep the core yearly rate unchanged at +1.0%. The case for improvement, at least in the headline yoy rate, is supported by the New Orders Sub-index of the ISM manufacturing PMI for the month, which rose to 50.8 from 50.0.
On Tuesday, the only releases worth mentioning are the second estimate of the...
Read the full financial markets weekly outlook on JFD Research.