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The Market 11/09/2014

IronFX Global

EUR/USD in a consolidative mode

EUR/USD moved in a consolidative mode on Wednesday, remaining between the support line of 1.2860 (S1) and the psychological barrier of 1.3000 (R1). The MACD moved higher after crossing above its signal line, while the positive divergence between the RSI and the price action is still in effect. Having these signs in mind, I would remain cautious of further upside in the near future, maybe to test the psychological line of 1.3000 (R1) as a resistance this time. Nevertheless, on the daily chart, the price structure remains lower highs and lower lows below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages, thus I still see a negative overall picture. A clear move below 1.2860 (S1), is likely to trigger extensions towards the key support zone of 1.2760 (S2), defined by the lows of March and July 2013.

• Support: 1.2860 (S1), 1.2760 (S2), 1.2660 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.3000 (R1), 1.3100 (R2), 1.3160 (R3).

GBP/JPY surges towards 173.30

GBP/JPY surged yesterday, violating the blue minor-term trend line and two resistance (turned into support) lines in a row. Although we had a strong rally, I would prefer to remain neutral as the price structure does not suggest trending conditions. The MACD lies above both its signal and zero lines, confirming yesterday’s strong positive momentum, but the RSI found resistance at its 70 line and is now pointing down, favoring a pullback. These mixed momentum signals give me another reason to remain flat, at least for now.

• Support: 172.75 (S1), 171.60 (S2), 170.95 (S3).

• Resistance: 173.30 (R1), 174.00 (R2), 174.50 (R3).

NZD/USD dips after the RBNZ meeting

NZD/USD tumbled during the Asian morning, after the RBNZ kept its key rate at 3.5% and said that kiwi’s current level is “unjustified and unsustainable”. NZD/USD reached our support line of 0.8180 (S1), where a decisive dip is likely to set the stage for extensions towards the next support line at 0.8080 (S2), defined by the low of the 29th of November 2013 and lows at the beginnings of February 2014. As long as the pair is trading below the near-term blue downtrend line and below the prior longer-term uptrend line (light blue line), drawn from back at the 30th of August 2013, the overall picture remains negative, in my view.

• Support: 0.8180 (S1), 0.8080 (S2), 0.8000 (S3).

• Resistance: 0.8350 (R1), 0.8400 (R2), 0.8500 (R3).

Gold remains near the lower bound of the channel

Gold moved lower yesterday, breaking below the 1250 (support turned into resistance) barrier. However, the precious metal remained near the lower boundary of the purple downside channel. Given our proximity to the lower line of the channel and the fact that the positive divergence between the RSI and the price action remains in effect, I would still be cautious of a possible upside corrective move in the near future. Nevertheless, as long as the metal is trading within the aforementioned downside channel and below the black line drawn from back at the low of the 31th of December, I consider the overall path to be to the downside.

• Support: 1240 (S1), 1230 (S2), 1220 (S3).

• Resistance: 1250 (R1), 1260 (R2), 1273 (R3).

WTI hits the critical support o 91.30

WTI moved lower yesterday to find support at the critical line of 91.30 (S1), a barrier that provided strong support to the price action and has not been violated since May 2013. Having that in mind and the fact that WTI seems to be forming a falling wedge formation, I would prefer to take the sidelines for now. A clear and decisive dip below 91.30 (S1) could carry larger bearish implications and could open the way for 85.75 (S3), defined by the lows of the 18th of April 2013. On the other hand, a clear move above 93.95 (R1) is likely confirm the upside escape from the wedge pattern and could pave the way for the next resistance at 96.00 (R2).

• Support: 91.30 (S1), 90.00 (S2), 85.75 (S3).

• Resistance: 93.95 (R1), 96.00 (R2), 96.70 (R3) .



Source: https://www.ironfx.com/en/research-and-analysis/fundamental-analysis_11_09_2014
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