Expected increase in India sugar output is bearish for sugar prices
Higher expected sugar production in India is bearish for sugar. Will the sugar price continue falling?
On the daily timeframe SUGAR: D1 has been trading with negative bias since early February. Price is below the 200-day moving average MA(200) .
- The Parabolic indicator gives a sell signal.
- The Donchian channel gives no signal: it is flat.
- The MACD indicator is neutral: it is below the signal line and the gap is steady.
- The stochastic oscillator is edging up from the oversold zone.
We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price closes below lower boundary of Donchian channel at 13.78. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above the Parabolic signal at 15.53. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (15.53) without reaching the order (13.78), we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.
Summary of technical analysis:
| Position | Sell |
| Sell stop | Below 13.78 |
| Stop loss | Above 15.53 |