EUR/USD spiked to $1.2760 as German import prices picked up, while US durable goods orders declined. However, then euro returned lower as US consumer confidence jumped to the highest levels since late 2007. Support is at $1.2720 (200-hour MA) and $1.2700. On Wednesday the pair will be more consolidative ahead of the Fed’s meeting results at 18:00 GMT. Further dynamics will depend on the Fed. Below $1.2700 at least euro will fall to $1.2630. Still, if the Fed doesn’t change its forward guidance to more hawkish, EUR/USD will test $1.2800. In this latter case USD/CAD will slide to 1.1100.
GBP/USD extends the recovery on Monday, but still remains below our major resistance at 1.6200. As we have already mentioned yesterday, price fix above here would confirm a short-term inverse head-and-shoulders with a target at $1.6500. However, the pattern lacks confirmation for now. Great Britain is scheduled to release Net Lending to Individuals data at 8:30 GMT., but the market will mostly be driven by FOMC tomorrow.
USD/JPY keeps on consolidating in the 107.50 / 108.30 range on Tuesday. We hold a long position with a stop order at 107.50. Japan will release preliminary industrial production figures tomorrow (+2.3% exp. versus prior -1.9%).
Volatility in NZD/USD will likely increase tomorrow: watch ANZ business confidence at midnight. In US session on Wednesday RBNZ policy decision will come out at 20:00 GMT – two hours after the FOMC meeting. Downside risks for the pair prevail.