EUR/USD fell to a fresh 2-year low of 1.2395 after a dovish ECB press-conference on Thursday. Mario Draghi didn’t announce any new easing measures in November, but underlined the ECB will be unanimous in launching new stimulus if needed. The overall economic prospects remain gloomy, so markets will now be expecting a large-scale QE to come in December. Don’t miss the US NFP on Friday – figure above 200K will likely increase pressure on EUR/USD and pull it down towards the next support at 1.2270.
At the moment of writing we see a spinning top on the USD/JPY daily chart. On the one hand, many traders think that the pair’s overbought. On the other hand, USD/JPY was supported by better US jobless claims and a decline in EUR/USD. There’s nothing on the agenda from Japan, only comments of the Fed’s officials overnight. NFP will be a supporting factor for the greenback, but taking into account the divergence on the H4 chart, we don’t expect the pair to jump at least ahead of the release. USD/JPY is in the short-term rising channel, but the possibility that it will test levels outside this channel, in the 113.20 area, as it gathers strength for another move up.
GBP/USD lowered to $1.5900 – this is actually a bottom of the weekly Cloud. Support is at $1.5870. Pound isn’t paying attention to slightly better releases in the UK (same thing was on Monday), as the market is focused on the US and the euro area. Tomorrow won’t bring any changes. We still see GBP/USD vulnerable to decline to $1.5750 on a break below $1.5870. Resistance is at $1.5950 and $1.6020.
AUD/USD hovers slightly above the 0.8600 mark in the early US trade. The currency is oversold, but a daily close below the 0.8600 figure will likely trigger more sales. Australia is scheduled to release RBA monetary policy statement on Friday at 0:30 GMT – we could once again hear about that the Aussie dollar is overvalued.