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Daily F.X.Analysis, May 13 – UK GDP and Fed Chair Speak In Focus! 


The dollar is trading with a neutral bias as the US April Inflation data showed that it fell more than the expectations and made the U.S. dollar weaker against Euro currency. The forecasted value of CPI was -0.7%, which in actual came as -0.8%. The Core CPI came as -0.4% in the month of April against the forecasted -0.2%. Let's wait for Fed Chair's speech today.

Economic Calendar

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

The BTC/USD prices continue to consolidate with in the same trading range of 9,000 - 8,600 level. The BTC/USD price prolongs restoration over $8,900 but declines below $9,000. Gains over $9,000 would open the way to barter with the resistance at $9,532. Bitcoin buyers are eventually rising from their hiding following a grisly four days.

The largest cryptocurrency has fought with improvement from the weekend lows at $8,100. Nevertheless, progress has been made towards $9,000 after the seller congestion zone at $8,900 was cleared. The BTC/USD is trading at $8,910, following a trivial improvement from a high of $8,979.

The BTCUSD is particularly bullish while trading over the $8,700 mark, key resistance is located at the $9,400 and the $10,000 marks. If the BTCUSD pair trades beneath the $8,700, sellers may examine the $8,000 and $7,000 support marks.

At the moment, the volatility in the leading cryptocurrency is notably high. Nevertheless, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin's downside is maintained by the assembly created by the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 200-day SMA. Today, a bearish breakout of 8,500 level may extend selling bias until the next support level of 8,230.

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

8,590 9,010

8,362 9,202

8,170 9,430

Pivot Point 8,782

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

Since the drop of the BTC/USD below 10K psychological resistance level to 8,500 support zone, the leading crypto pair hasn't exhibited any one-sided movement. Currently, the BTC/USD prices are gaining support above 8,400 level and 8,100 level. Today, bearish breakout and closing of candles below 8,450 level may extend selling bias until the next support level of 8,120. However, if Bitcoin continues to close candles above the 8,500 level, we may see bullish correction until the 9,000 level.

EUR/USD – Pivot Point Supports

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.08482 after placing a high of 1.08851and a low of 1.07842. Overall the movement of pair EUR/USD remained bullish throughout the day.

EUR/USD pair was trimmed the previous day's losses and started gaining on Tuesday and moved to its highest level since May 5. EUR/USD pair crossed 1.088 level and was seen heading towards 1.0900 level after poor and disappointing U.S. inflation data.

The US April Inflation data showed that it fell more than the expectations and made the U.S. dollar weaker against Euro currency. The forecasted value of CPI was -0.7%, which in actual came as -0.8%. The Core CPI came as -0.4% in the month of April against the forecasted -0.2%.

On the news front, according to a senior E.U. figure, Britain and European Union no-longer trust on each other. The European Vice President Katrina Barley said that she was pessimistic about the trade talks with Britain.

She criticized the U.K.'s response towards making a deal with E.U. and complained about the slow progress around the negotiations for the post-Brexit deal. She also warned that in the next round of trade talks on the relationship with Britain after Brexit, there would be no enthusiasm from both sides.

On the other hand, coronavirus has hit European Union in ways that would have been unthinkable only months ago. It has not costed human lives but also has destroyed the E.U. economy severely. The Chairman of Parliament's Budget Committee, Johan Van Overtveldt, warned about the slow and gradual economic recovery and called the latest prediction of 7.5% contraction in economic activity this year as a mild forecast.

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.0793 1.0894

1.0738 1.094

1.0691 1.0995

Pivot Point 1.0839

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0842, holding above an intraday pivot point resistance level of 1.0839. A bearish breakout of 1.0839 level can lead the EUR/USD prices towards the next support area of 1.07630, which marks the double bottom level. Below this, the next support holds around 1.0725. On the higher side, resistance holds around 1.0864. The RSI is holding below 50, which is keeping the EUR/USD in a bearish mode while the 50 EMA is also suggesting odds of selling trend in the EUR/USD. Consider staying bearish below 1.082 today, while buying can also be seen above this level today.

GBP/USD - Downward Channel In-Play

The GBP/USD currency pair stops its 2-day losing streak and hovering near the late-April low 1.2250 as traders are cautious about placing any strong position ahead of critical U.K. macro releases. As we mentioned, the market participants are waiting for the key data while staying near April low, a continued break of a bullish sloping trend line from April 06 keeps sellers hopeful of targeting April month low near 1.2165 beneath 1.2250.

The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2271 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2251 - 1.2284. At the data front, the U.K.'s heavy economic calendar is going to control the markets moves at 06:00 GMT with the first quarter (Q1) GDP figures for 2020. As well as, the March month Trade Balance and Industrial Production detail will also decorate the economic calendar.

According to the forecasted view about GDP, the United Kingdom GDP is expected to reach -8.0% MoM in March against -0.1% prior, while the Index of Services (3M/3M) in the same timeframe is seen higher from 0.2% to 0.30%.

The GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, which is usually shown by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a gauge of the total value of all goods and services produced by the U.K. The GDP plays a key role in U.K. economic activity. Usually speaking, an increasing trend has seen as a positive or bullish for the GBP currency. Alternatively, a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Manufacturing Production, which produced approximately 80% of total industrial production, is expected to fall 6% MoM in March against +0.5% recorded in February. Moreover, the total Industrial Production is expected to arrive in at -5.6% MoM for March against the previous reading of +0.1%.

At the yearly front, the Industrial Production for March is expected to have declined by 9.3% against -2.8% previous while the Manufacturing Production is also expected to have declined by 10.4% in the reported month against -3.9% last.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2217 1.2339

1.2175 1.2419

1.2095 1.2462

Pivot Point 1.2297

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD fell below the sideways trading range of 1.2350 - 1.2285, to trade at 1.2260 before reverting back to 1.2297. Overall, the Cable's trading bias is still bearish as it's holding below 50 EMA, which is extending resistance at 1.2370. The GBP/USD is now testing the daily pivot point level of 1.2297, which is suggesting odds of the selling trend in the Cable. However, the bullish breakout of 1.2297 level may extend buying until 1.2375 and 1.2460. The RSI and 50 EMA are suggesting the chances of a selling bias today. On the lower side, the GBP/USD prices are likely to find support at around 1.2204. Let's look for selling trades below 1.2297 and buying above the same level today.

Good luck!

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Source: https://www.eaglefx.com/news/daily-f-x-analysis-may-13-uk-gdp-and-fed-chair-speak-in-focus-2/
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