Crypto review for May 12 - Cryptocurrencies directionless following Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin (+0.69%) and most of the cryptocurrencies continue moving in a range after its halving event. ETH ( +0.72%) and XRP (-0.37%) behave similarly, although Bitcoin Cash (+1.79%) and, mainly, Bitcoin SV (+3.85%) behave slightly better. The best performer is Cardano (+8,53%), whereas the most bearish is DigiByte (-8.99%). In the Ethereum token sector, the best advances are made by UBT (+20%), REP (+17.28%), and THETA (+14.9%), while the worst declines belong to TNT (-36.4%), BXK (-16.2%) and ZRX (-9.67%).

Fig 1 - 72H Crypto Sector Heat Map

The total market capitalization is currently $237.514 billion (+1.08%) on a 24H volume of 69.193 billion (+18.2%), while the bitcoin dominance hasn't changed much, at 67.17%.

News Sentiment Analysis

Crypto-related news

• Bitcoin undergoes third halving as community awaits what's next (Ambcrypto)

• Trust No Dapp: Chainlink Launches Oracle for Provable Randomness (Coindesk)

• Litecoin Maintains a Higher SegWit Adoption Rate Compared to Bitcoin (Nulltx)

• Nouriel Roubini: The Plunge To $8K Proved Bitcoin is Whale-Controlled and Manipulated (CryptoPotato) -

• Post-Halving Report: Brazil Could be New' Demand Source' for Bitcoin (Cointelegraph)

• Unlike BCH and BSV, Bitcoin's Hash Rate Holds Strong After Halving (Longhash)

• Binance Invests in First Regulated Cryptocurrency Exchange in Indonesia, Tokocrypto (Binance)

• Hut 8 Mining Revenue Continues to Decline in Q1 (Coindesk)

• Tether (USDT) Poised to Surpass XRP as the Third-Largest Cryptocurrency (Beincrypto)

• The Great Monetary Inflation: Paul Tudor Jones' Complete Case for Bitcoin (Coindesk)

Mainstream news

• Tesla and Elon Musk reopen California facility, defying orders meant to stem coronavirus spread (CNN)

• Asian markets fall as investors focus on new coronavirus outbreaks (Marketwatch)

• As countries consider lifting lockdowns, some in Asia are experiencing a resurgence in coronavirus cases (CNBC)

• Japan to approve its first coronavirus antigen test kits on Wednesday (Investing)

• China shares stagnant even after Beijing hints at 'more powerful' stimulus (Marketwatch)

• European markets head for lower open as concerns rise over a second wave of coronavirus cases (CNBC)

Sentiment analysis

The halving event has passed and with it the FOMO, and the fear of higher volatility. Currently, crypto investors seek clues for direction. While most crypto news are positive, the world is still concerned by the coronavirus outbreak. The Asian markets are dropping, although relatively mild on fears of a second wave of the pandemic. The Shanghai Composite COMP is down 0.32%), Japan's Nikkei 225 (-0.11%) is slightly down, Hong Kong's HSI sheds -1.67%, while South Korea's Kospi eases 0.44% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 sank by 0.99%. Also, it is expected that the European markets to open with losses. London's FTSE futures contract is 17 points lower at 5,913, Germany's DAX futures shows 65 points drop at 10,765, France's CAC 40 is 27 points lower at 4,461, and Italy's FTSE MIB experiences a 147 points drop at 17,094.

Technical Analysis

Total Market

Fig 2 - Total Market Daily

The total market of the sector has made two bounces after it touched its 200-day SMA, at about $221 billion, yesterday it made a high wave candle, which, according to Steve Nison shows that participants are totally confused about the market's direction. Today is trying to make a bullish candlestick, but it's a long way to go until it's completion. The price is still inside the ascending regression channel, and above its 50- and 200-day SMA, as the RSI is timidly curving up at the middle of the range.

Technical Factors

• Bollinger bands slope is positive +

• Linear regression channel points upward +

• Price above its 20- 50- and 200-day SMA +

• Price made a high wave figure N

• Price under the mid-Bollinger line -

• 50-SMA below its 200-SMA -

• RSI curved upwards at the middle of the range +

Total Market Outlook

The technical clues point for a slightly bullish bias, but traders would need to confirm if Sunday's drop has ended or not, by observing movements breaking key levels.

Bitcoin

Fig 3 - Bitcoin 4H Chart

Bitcoin made a couple of attempts to challenge the $8,100 level, but near there, it found buyers, although the weakness is still present, and the halving event hasn't clarified the next price movement yet. The day started with a positive bias, as it has gained near 2% since the beginning of today's session, but the price still moves in the lower side of the Bollinger bands, the bands themselves pointing sharply down. On the positive side, the price still moves inside the ascending channel.

Technical Factors

• The price is near the -1 Sigma Bollinger line and on the lower half of the regression channel -

• The Bollinger bands point downwards -

• Price below its 20- and 50-period SMA -

• 200-SMAs has positive slope +

• The slope of the Linear Regression Channel is positive +

• Price rejected from $10,000 resistance -

• RSI close to oversold ascends slightly +

Bitcoin's Outlook

Bitcoin is currently creating a consolidation area. The short-term technical indicators are bearish, and the long-term ones are bullish. Thus, we can conclude that BTC is making a corrective movement against the primary trend, which is quite normal after a 30% advances in abut two weeks. The current range goes from $8,500 to $8,900. Traders must be patient and wait for volatility movements that could reveal the future direction. Since the short-term bias is bearish, expect the fading of the rallies.

Pivot Levels

Ethereum

Fig 4 - Ethereum 4H Chart

Erhereum continues creating a slightly descending range at the bottom of the short-term descending channel, its 200-period SMA serving as support for the prices, but below the $190 level, which may act as resistance. The price is moving near the -1 sigma line of the Bollinger bands, the bands pointing south. Also, the RSI is under the 40 level in a slightly ascending path.

Technical Factors

• Price near the -1 sigma line of the Bollinger bands -

• Bollinger bands pointing down -

• Price well below its 50-SMA and trying to pierce its 200-SMA -

• The price pierced through the bottom of the ascending channel -

• The slope of the linear regression channel is positive +

• The price still inside the short-term descending channel -

• RSI is still weak -

Ethereum's Outlook

As with the Bitcoin, we see the short-term bias negative; thus, a move to test the $175 level is a possibility, although, currently, there is no confirmation for it. Also, a break above the $190, could invalidate this and bring traders to the buyer side.

Pivot Levels

Ripple

Fig 5 - Ripple 4H Chart

Ripple moves in the range it was moving before its last bullish rally, between $0.19 and $0.20, but the current path is descending, moving alongside the -1 sigma line of the Bolinger bands. We see also that the price is now below its 20-, 50-, and 200-period SMA, which is bearish. The RSI is also weak, near the 30 range.

Technical Factors

• Prices near the -1 sigma Bollinger line --

• Price below the lower edge of the ascending channel --

• Bollinger bands pointing down and expanding -

• Price below its 20-, 50-, and 200-SMA --

• 50-SMA above the 200-SMA +

• RSI weak below the 40 level -

• 200-SMA turning down -

Ripple's Outlook

As said, XRP's short-term bias is bearish, but the $0.19 level has been strong support, as evidenced by the lower wicks we see in the candlesticks that try to pierce that level. Thus, we still see XRP's price ranging inside the area shown in the cyan rectangle on the chart. A break below $0.19 could mean a test of the $0.17 level, whereas a move above $20 is not currently expected, and if it happens, it will be faded.

Pivot Points

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