Crypto review for May 08 - Bitcoin touches $10K for the first time two months after March's 12 black Thursday

Bitcoin once more drove the cryptocurrency sector and advanced 6.7% in the last 24 hours to briefly reach the $10,000 for the first time since February 24 and complete the recovery from $3,700, a 170% increase. Most of the sector is up, with NEO(+6.67% and Monero (+9.81%) among the best performers. Ethereum(+2.85%) and Ripple (+0,89%) moved with less impulse. Ethereum Tokens also move mostly in the green, with ZRX(+28%) and LEND (+23.41%) leading the advances.

Fig 1 - 24H Crypto Sector Heat Map

The total market capitalization broke the $260Billion, so the sector is now valued at $263.800 billion, a 5% increase. Also, the traded volume in the last 24 hours increased to 67.775 billion(+28.3%), and the dominance of Bitcoin grew to 68.14% from 67.59% a day ago.

News Sentiment Analysis

Crypto-related news

• One of Bitcoin’s Earliest Miners Is Dedicating $66M in Crypto to a Fund of Funds

• CFTC Claims ‘Massive Fraudulent’ Scheme Defrauded Investors of $20M

• Smart Contracts on IOTA Start Taking Shape

• A new startup called Yield is trying to bring fixed-rate borrowing and lending to Ethereum

• Telegram Agrees to Hand Over ICO Documents to SEC

• Macro investor Paul Tudor Jones makes a case for owning bitcoin as a hedge against central bank money printing

• Tradeshift Proposes Plan to Protect Denmark’s Supply Chains From COVID-19 Crisis

• Deribit moved to block users in Japan after the country tightened its crypto rules. Other derivatives exchanges are weighing their options

• Digital asset bill moving through California's legislature would limit which are deemed securities

• Crypto Investor Sues New York Teen for $71.4 million in SIM-Swap Saga

Mainstream news

• Dow futures up nearly 300 points as U.S.-China trade reps hold call; investors brace for the jobs report

• Japan stocks jump 2% as Asia stocks rise ahead of US jobs report

• Coronavirus Crisis Forces Uber to lay off Thousands of Full-time Workers

• Jobs number will be bad, but the reality is actually much worse, warns the Fed’s Neel Kashkari.

• Phase 2 of the lockdown and the Romans are back in the streets, queuing outside their favorite bar for a long-awaited espresso

• Credit-card use dives in March by most since 1989

• Cryptocurrency market jumps by over $13 billion driven by bitcoin as major technical event approaches

• ‘There is no point’ in the Fed going to negative interest rates, argues JPMorgan

Sentiment analysis

Crypto investors are bullish on Bitcoin halving as the stock markets keep moving up and providing an upbeat and positive mood. Asian markets rose on Friday with Singapore's STI almost flat -0.1%, Indonesia's JAKIDX easing 0.23%, Nikkei 225 gaining +2.56%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up by 1.03%, The Shanghai Composite up 1.12%, South Korea's Kospi moving up by 0.92% and Taiwan's Y9999 up +0.54%. Also, Australia is up +0.5% despite the worrisome forecast of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which stated it e expects a slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Technical Analysis

Total Market

Fig 2 - Total Market Daily

The total market daily chart shows a large candlestick that finally broke the ranging zone made in the past seven days and brought the price above the $260B region. The action keeps taking place in the upper half of the regression channel with the price near the upper +2 Sigma edge and well above the +1Sigma line of the Bollinger bands, as the RSI crossed the 75 level.

Technical Factors

• Price momentarily breaking the consolidation zone to the upside ++

• Price above the +1 Sigma line of the Bollinger Bands and on the upper side of the regression channel +

• Bollinger bands slope is positive +

• Linear regression channel points upward +

• Price above its 20- 50- and 200-day SMA +

• 50-SMA below its 200-SMA -

• RSI above 70 -

Total Market Outlook

Almost all technical factors signal that the market is in a bullish trend. After the last movement, the valuation is a bit overbought, with the RSI in the overbought zone and the prices touching the +2 Sigma of its ascending channel.

Although this is an indication of the bullish momentum, we must remember that in the gaussian distribution of prices, being away of its mean by two sigmas happens only about five percent of the time. Thus, a retracement towards the mean is a 95% probable event.

Bitcoin

Fig 3 - Bitcoin 8H Chart

Bitcoin made an extensive move on Thursday when it broke the $9,400 resistance level and headed up to touch momentarily the $10,000. The last candles, still in progress is retracing half of the last bullish candle, which is usual after an overextended movement. We see that the price exceeded the +2 sigma edge of the steep regression channel, and is also well above the +1 sigma line of the Bollinger bands, as the RSI went above the 70 level.

Technical Factors

• The price is above the +1 Sigma Bollinger line and on the upper half of the regression channel +

• The Bollinger bands turned up and are widening +

• Price above its 20-, 50-, and 200-period SMA +

• Both 50- and 200-SMAs has positive slope +

• The slope of the Linear Regression Channel is positive +

• Price rejected from $10,000 resistance -

• RSI close to overbought -

Bitcoin's Outlook

The primary trend is bullish, as signaled by most of the technical factors, but the price is overextended after a 40% bullish run from $7,000 to $10,000. Thus, we should expect a period of consolidation before a breakout of the $10K. We have to take into account also that the halving that will take place in three days can change that, as volatility could accelerate the events and create a large run-up or a substantial selloff. Thus, traders should be alert and act quickly.

Pivot Levels

Ethereum

Fig 4 - Ethereum 4H Chart

Ethereum followed Bitcoin's push on Thursday but lagging it. The price went as high as $216 but, after a drawing doji, it has retreated to below $210. On the 4H chart, we see that the price still follows the descending regression channel, although the price is now near the +1sigma line of the Bollinger bands, with the action just touching the +50-SMA line. We, also, see the RSI weaken below 60 after a movent up from 40.

Technical Factors

• Price near the +1 sigma of the Bollinger bands +

• Bollinger bands head up +

• Price slightly above its 50-SMA +

• ETH found buyers at $208 +

• The slope of the linear regression channel is positive +

• The price still inside the short-term descending channel -

• RSI is still weak -

Ethereum's Outlook

Ethereum is still trying to break its slightly descending range. It is a good sign that now the $208 level and its 50-SMA line held the price. Also positive is the price moving in the upper channel of the Bollinger bands. Thus, although we see Ethereum a bit weak, we think the las leg up may continue towards the $220 and above. A break below $208 would spoil this scenario.

Pivot Levels

Ripple

Fig 5 - Ripple 4H Chart

Ripple is still moving in a triangular formation. On Thursday, it made a bullish movement, following Bitcoin's lead, but it was weak and has been faded afterward. XRP moves inside the Bollinger bands as they move horizontally and shrinking. The RSI shows no direction. Finally, we still see Ripple move near the mid-line of an ascending regression channel

Technical Factors

• Prices below the mid-Bollinger line -

• Bollinger bands pointing slightly down and shrinking -

• Price below its 50-SMA although still above its 200-SMA N

• 50-SMA above the 200-SMA +

• RSI weak below the 50 level -

• 50-SMA turning down -

Ripple's Outlook

Ripple is still directionless. It is still making a consolidation after its last bullish impulse made from April 28 to April 30. The long-term trend is bullish, and it seems to have found support at $0.21. Buyers must wait for a break above 0.223, at least, although a better confirmation would be a break above 0.2265.

Pivot Points

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