ATFX Market Outlook - 17th March 2026
Global Central Bank Week Starts; RBA Rate Decision in Focus
(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Summary
· BIS Guidance: The BIS urged central banks to avoid overreacting, classifying the Iran-driven oil spike as a temporary shock.
· Hormuz Update: Crude oil prices halted their rally as reports emerged of vessels successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
· RBA Decision: Markets anticipate a 25-bps hike today as Middle East tensions fuel inflation fears. Following hawkish signals from the Deputy Governor, Governor Bullock is expected to keep the door open for further tightening.
Global Market Review
· U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Monday, reflecting robust momentum in AI-related equities and shifting sentiment on Middle East risks. The S&P 500 posted its largest single-day gain in over a month, signalling renewed investor risk appetite. Gains in the Dow (0.83%), S&P 500 (1.01%), and Nasdaq (1.22%) evidence broad-based bullishness. While U.S. Treasuries rebounded, the limited magnitude of their gains highlights persistent caution in fixed income. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) retreated 0.64% to 99.70, snapping a four-day winning streak and indicating reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
· Gold prices edged lower as inflation concerns tied to Middle East instability outweighed support from a weaker dollar and traditional safe-haven demand. Spot gold dipped 0.27% to $5,004.96 per ounce, testing its lowest level since February 19—a signal that investors are weighing geopolitical risks against inflationary pressures. In energy, crude oil prices reversed recent gains after U.S. allies rebuffed President Trump’s call for assistance in the Strait of Hormuz, while commentary from the IEA chief on further reserve releases provided a potential cap on price spikes.
Key Events
Today: 11:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***
12:30 RBA Press Conference ***
18:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAR **
22:00 US Pending Home Sales FEB **
Tomorrow:
04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***
18:00 EU CPI YoY Final FEB **
20:30 US PPI YoY FEB **
21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***
22:00 US Factory Orders MoM JAN**
22:30 BoC Press Conference ***
22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.1573/1.1623
Support: 1.1411/1.1362
The Euro staged a sharp 0.92% recovery as the USD retreated from 10-month highs. The temporary easing of supply fears in the Middle East encouraged a short-covering rally, though energy dependency remains a structural weight on the currency.
Analyst View: The pair is displaying a strong corrective bounce after defending the 1.1411 support zone. While the immediate momentum has shifted upward, EUR/USD remains locked within a well-defined descending channel. Price is now approaching the 1.1573 resistance cluster; a failure to break above this ceiling would likely keep the primary bearish trend intact.
Bias: Consolidating at low levels below 1.1560 (10-day MA).
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.3368/1.3396
Support: 1.3253/1.3226
Sterling recovered significantly, rising 0.84% from recent multi-month lows. The rebound was fueled by a broader USD pullback and a slight easing of geopolitical tensions. However, investors remain wary ahead of the Bank of England meeting later this week.
Analyst View: After tagging the lower extension of its range, GBP/USD has staged a sharp technical rebound. It is currently testing 1.3253 as new support. However, the descending channel remains intact, with 1.3368 acting as a formidable ceiling.
Bias: Consolidating at low levels below 1.3360.
USDJPY
Resistance: 159.75/160.36
Support: 158.94/158.29
The Yen continues to hover near the 159.00 level. Despite the slight softening of the USD, JPY remains fundamentally weak due to the ongoing energy crisis and the massive yield gap between the Fed and the BoJ.
Analyst View: The pair is consolidating at the top of its bullish channel, currently supported by the 1.236 Fibonacci level ($158.94$). While the primary trend remains upward, the price action is increasingly sensitive to intervention rhetoric. A breach of 159.75 could trigger a final run toward the 160.36 peak.
Bias: High-level range consolidation.
US Crude Oil Futures (APR)
Resistance: 102.85/109.02
Support: 89.28/83.22
WTI crude oil prices dropped by more than 5% during the day, closing near $93.50 per barrel. The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to limited shipping traffic and potential releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have reduced the immediate "war premium," bringing attention back to consistently high U.S. oil output.
Analyst View: WTI crude oil is stabilizing in a gradually rising price pattern after falling sharply from above $100 per barrel. Currently, prices are close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $95.35—a technical level traders use to identify potential price support. If the price does not stay above this level, it could fall and test the next support area at $89.28, especially as concerns about sudden supply disruptions continue to decrease.
Bias: Bullish bias remains as long as it stays above the 10-day MA ($89).
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 5131/5200
Support: 4927/4841
Spot Silver
Resistance: 82.54/83.96
Support: 77.93/76.52
Gold slipped to $4,993 as investors weighed safe-haven demand against the "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative. Sticky inflation expectations, fueled by recent energy spikes, are curbing the upside for non-yielding assets.
Analyst View: Gold is teetering on a psychological knife-edge at the 5,000 mark, currently finding thin support near the 0.736 Fibonacci level. Technical indicators suggest a bearish drift as the price remains capped by the 5,131 resistance zone. A decisive break below 4,990 would likely trigger an extension of the sell-off toward the 4,927 support floor.
Bias: Hovering near the $5,000 psychological handle.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 47544/47853
Support: 46522/46208
The Dow rose 0.83% on Monday, participating in a broader market recovery led by technology and AI-related stocks. The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provided a much-needed boost to industrial sentiment, easing immediate stagflation fears triggered by the energy crisis.
Analyst View: The index has stabilised and is attempting to challenge the 47,544 resistance. While this provides a reprieve, the index is trending low. Bulls need a break above 47,853 to shift the medium-term outlook significantly.
Bias: Consolidating at lower levels below 47,100.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 25009/25282
Support: 24196/23854
The NAS100 surged 1.22% as the "AI trade" regained momentum. Strong performances from Meta and Nvidia helped the index decouple from energy-related inflation fears, providing a relief rally for the broader tech sector.
Analyst View: The index has staged an impressive bounce from its channel floor. However, the 25,009 resistance remains a formidable barrier. Market participants will likely remain cautious until the Fed provides clear guidance on the interest rate trajectory.
Bias: Gains capped below 24,800.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 77369/78338
Support: 74086/72828
BTC surged 3.6% to six-week highs, driven by $344M in short liquidations and a $1.57B purchase by Strategy. Bitcoin continues to serve as a digital hedge while oil prices stay high.
Analyst View: Bitcoin is accelerating within its ascending channel, having turned the previous 74,086 resistance into immediate support. The aggressive institutional buying has cleared the path toward the 77,369 level. Maintaining a foothold above 75,000 is critical to sustaining this momentum and challenging the major 78,338 resistance zone.
Bias: Bullish above 74,000.
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