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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 7
Personal opinions today:
The number of non-farm payrolls in September was lower than the market expected, and the monthly and.annual rate of average hourly wages fell, falling more than half a year. Only the unemployment rate fell, lead the market surprise. Anyway, the U.S. job data had been expected to be bearish for Dow futures and the dollar, when the decline in U.S. nonfarm payrolls did not widen in September. Besides, Dow futures rebounded sharply above 26,400, as high as 26,588, in anticipation of a Fed rate cut and hopes for a successful 13th round of US and China trade talks on Thursday. Gold and silver were downward. On the other side of the US dollar, the Fed may cut interest rates as average wages fall, and inflation expectations fall. The news affected the dollar, and the dollar index began to weaken.
There is no critical data or other essential comments in the market today, and if there is no surprise, it expects a narrow and ranging. In European trading, German manufacturing orders for August and Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment for October weighed on the euro. September Halifax quarterly house price index, watch the British pound. In addition to the conference board employment trends index for September, it is worth watching during the session when U.S. President Donald Trump's sudden remarks caused market volatility. It may believe that the European market after the close of the market began to calm; the trend started to straighten out.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
14:00 German manufacturing orders in August **
15:30 UK September Halifax house price index **
16:30 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index **
22:00 US employment trends index for September **
The U.S. non-farm payrolls fell in September, and average wages were below market expectations. The dollar fell, and the euro took advantage of the rally, hitting 1.0995. After the adjustment of the Euro again test the resistance. If the European economic data stronger today, the Euro could come out of weakness. If U.S. data is weak, the Euro could test the 1.10 resistance. For short term support, watch out for 1.0955 support.
Pound against US dollar
The situation is grim in Britain, which has just over 20 days left to leave Europe. If Brexit talks between Britain and the EU do not proceed and ready. In the short term, the UK continues to face uncertainty and is bearish on pound, with a target of 1.22. Focusing on weak U.S. non-farm payrolls and falling average wages in September, the pound may be limited losses if expectations for a Fed rate cut rise. Today, have to look the support, then look at the resistance.
Australian dollar to US dollar
Markets this week waited for the 13th round of US and China trade talks to be successful, with gains for the Australian dollar. Also, weak U.S. jobs data and increased opportunities for the federal reserve to cut interest rates bearish the U.S. dollar, bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars. If the above good news, the Australian dollar rose against the US dollar, is expected to break 0.6785 resistance, test the level of 0.68.
The U.S. non-farm payroll data in September is bearish for the dollar, which has been bearish for Dow and Nikkei futures and will have a chance to test the support levels against the yen again. The dollar is likely to test 107.35 resistance against the yen as the upcoming US and China trade talks bullish Dow and Nikkei futures. Suggest the Dow futures, how to lead the dollar against the yen trend.
U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
U.S. foreign trade frictions, weak jobs data, and an expected drop in demand for crude oil, which has tested $51. The international oil price trend is not clear, crude oil price decline momentum still has not improved, we suggest that the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar on the resistance. If crude oil falls again, the U.S. dollar could test 1.3340 resistance against the Canadian dollar. Otherwise, explore 1.3275 support.
United States crude oil futures
Earlier, the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed business activity fell below market expectations, while the US ISM PMI fell for the third month in a row and the non-manufacturing PMI fell for the first time. After weak U.S. ADP payrolls, the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls were also weak in September, decreasing the U.S. crude oil demand and sending futures prices lower overall. For now, the market is concerned about the imminent US and China trade talks, supporting a slight rise in oil prices. If the trade talks go well, bullish crude oil. Conversely, bearish crude oil price.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI showed that the U.S. job data and average wages fell in September. Rising trade frictions between the US and Europe are bearish for the US economy and inflation, and the Fed may consider cutting interest rates, which could be the reason for the rebound in gold prices. Technical trend, resistance level 1518 and 1520 are significant resistance. A short term without any data stimulus, gold price in range volatility, first watch 1512 and 1514 resistance.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures fell ahead of the expected weak non-farm payrolls data for September and disappointing PMI for U.S. manufacturing and services sectors. The market eased after the release and saw U.S. interest rate futures show an increased chance of rate cuts, supported Dow futures rebound. Besides, the market is focused on an uptick in investment sentiment following the US and China trade talks on Thursday as this analysis predicted last week that Dow futures will finally get a rebound. Now, without damaging comments affecting trade talks, Dow futures could continue to rise.
7885/ 7960 resistance
7500 / 7255 support
Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is significant. If gold price keeping up, the bitcoin price following the trend. For adjustment right now, it would be looking at US7500, it is critical support.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
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