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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 3
Personal opinions today:
U.S. September ADP payrolls, which below market expectations, and the market think that the US official September non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate could disappoint the market. Dow futures continued to slide after disappointing September U.S. jobs data. Dow future fell, gold prices and the yen is expected to continue to rise.
Earlier in European trading today, German and Eurozone purchasing managers index for services in September, producer prices in August and retail sales were all important. The Euro and Swiss franc are likely to maintain their gains if data show growth beating market expectations. Britain's services PMI for September is also being watched. But whatever the performance of the UK data, as time approaches and the UK government still does not have a deal with the EU, the pound will come downward.
Now, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and ADP job data for September were weak and bearish for the dollar. Against US dollar currency and precious metal commodity prices rise. If U.S. data is similarly weak today, it would believe the dollar will continue to be weak. Dow futures were bearish on crude oil amid weak U.S. data. But expect gold, silver and the yen to rise.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
15:45 Fed Evans speaks
15:55 German final services PMI for September ***
16:00 Eurozone final services PMI for September
16:30 UK services PMI for September **
17:00 Eurozone PPI, monthly retail sales ***
19:30 U.S. September challenger corporate layoffs *
20:30 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 28 ***
21:45 U.S. final Markit services PMI for September
22:00 U.S. factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI ***
The Euro rebounded on the dollar's fall to regain 1.0925, with an opportunity to test 1.1100. Technical moves, the Euro is still weak, if the U.S. data is weak to test the upper resistance, otherwise, the euro is still down to 1.0880. It is advisable to keep an eye out for the possibility of further boosting the euro if the economic data from Europe and the United States are released today.
Pound against dollar
With less than a month to go before the deadline for leaving Europe, the UK faces many uncertainties and challenges. Taking advantage of a number of weak U.S. economic data, the dollar fell on hopes the pound could recover 1.2360 resistance, but further gains in pound are likely to be limited, keeping an eye on the U.S. September non-farm payrolls data, which could fall at any time.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The trend of the Australian dollar continues to adjust waves, has tested the support level 0.6675. Mainly, the RBA held back further interest rate cuts pending the 13th round of US-China trade talks, limiting the Australian dollar gains. After yesterday's weak U.S. ADP jobs data. If the U.S. data continues to be weak, it will be bullish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Dow futures fell sharply and the dollar fell against the yen as trade frictions between the US and Europe escalated. If today's U.S. jobs data, factory orders and non-manufacturing PMI if lower expected, bearish dollar, Down and Nikkei futures, the dollar will have an opportunity to test lower support against the yen.
U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index fell in September, ADP employment data fell as well. The forecast demand for crude oil has fallen amid concerns about trade frictions in the United States. The Canadian dollar failed to benefit from the fall in the US dollar, falling along with crude oil prices. The international oil price situation is not clear; the crude oil price decline momentum still has not improved; we suggest that the USDCAD on the resistance.
United States crude oil futures
U.S. crude oil futures fell after many US regions purchasing managers index below market expectations and the U.S. ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index fell for the third straight month. And Saudi crude oil supplies gradually repair, crude oil prices continue to decline. Today's focus on U.S. Initial jobless claims and other US data, which could be bearish for oil if the slowdown continues.
Technical trend, gold prices finally recovered $1463, ease the downward. Dow futures fell and gold prices rebounded as U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and U.S. jobs data fell and trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe escalated. If U.S. data beats expectations today or Dow futures rebound, it could be bearish for gold. Technical trend, resistance level $1512 is concerned.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. ADP employment and U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers were disappointed, and Dow futures fell. After Dow futures fell, the market focused on the possibility that the official U.S. non-farm payroll could be just as weak today and Friday. Dow futures could recoup losses if U.S. jobs data and other U.S. economy data beat market expectations today, easing trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe and improving investment sentiment lift stocks. Looking forward to next week's high-level trade talks between China and the United States, the investment climate is rising, which could bullish the stock market.
9550 /10250 resistance
8085 / 7885 support
Since US ADP employment change below the market expectations. Dow future fell and gold price rose, the Bitcoin price would following. Technically, US7885 support is very important to support. If gold price keeping up, the bitcoin price following the trend. The first target 9550 or10250 resistance
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
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