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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 1
Personal opinions today:
The reserve bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 1% to 0.75%, challenging the lowest level in the reserve bank of Australia's history. If the RBA rate cut is in line with expectations and does not signal further rate cuts, it could be positive for the Australian dollar. However, the afternoon market may be expected to tomorrow's U.S. ADP employment change and the official non-farm payrolls data from the previous value, next week's US-China trade minister-level consultations, the dollar is now bullish, It was believe that it will limit the rise of the Australian dollar. Generally, the New Zealand dollar has followed the trend of the Australian dollar for most of its time.
Today's European data is as important as the U.S. data, with special attention given to the final German manufacturing PMI for September, the preliminary Eurozone CPI for September and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for September. For crude oil prices, the market is focused on tomorrow's U.S. API crude oil inventories last week. Keep an eye on what the fed officials are saying during U.S. trading hours. Also watch the hourly chart of U.S. Dow futures (US30) for stock market fluctuations and the pulse of the market. Dow futures rose last night, safe-haven flow out the money from gold and the yen. At the same time, money flows into dollar assets and the dollar and Down rose, which is bearish for other currencies against the dollar.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
12:30 RBA announces its decision on interest rates
14:00 UK house prices in September *
14:30 Swiss August real retail sales annualized *
15:15 Fed Evans on monetary policy *
15:55 German manufacturing PMI final for September ***
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI final for September
16:30 UK manufacturing PMI for September **
17:00 Eurozone September CPI annualized rate ***
17:20 RBA President David Lowe speech**
20:30 Canadian GDP in July **
20:50 Federal reserve vice chairman Clarida speech **
21:15 Fed Bullard delivers remarks at the meeting *
21:30 Federal reserve governor Robert Bowman speech *
21:45 US final Markit manufacturing PMI for September
22:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI in September ***
The next day 04:30 US API crude oil stocks change ***
European central bank President dovish comments lost investment confidence in the Euro. European economic data failed to meet market expectations to remain weak, the Euro downward. Today, the European market early focus on the German manufacturing PMI final September and Eurozone September CPI annualized rate. The comments followed comments by Fed officials and the September ISM manufacturing PMI. Any strong data, on behalf of the bullish, vice versa. Technical trend, the Euro trend is weak, the trend fell to reference support at 1.0900 and 1.0885 support. It is advisable to keep an eye on whether the Euro can be boosted by the economic data from Europe and the United States today. But it's more important to watch the ADP results tomorrow night. If the data does not come in as expected, the dollar could reverse course.
Pound against dollar
The situation in the UK is grim. With only one month left before the deadline for the UK to leave Europe, the UK faces more uncertainties and challenges, which become investment justifications. Unless there is a change in the Brexit negotiations and pound can recover its 1.2360 resistance, it will be limited and bearish if today's UK data beat expectations.
Australian dollar to US dollar
Australian dollar trend continues to adjust wave, short - term opportunities to explore 0.6715 and 0.6685 support. If the Australian dollar reverses after the RBA decision today, it could see some resistance. Ahead of the US.-China trade ministerial meeting, there are still challenging U.S. jobs data. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to get bullish on the news and U.S. jobs data.
Dow futures rose, pushing the dollar above 107.85 and 108.00 against the yen. The expected rise in U.S. Job data this week is expected to continue with the Doe futures rally and the dollar rising against the yen ahead of tomorrow's U.S. ADP data. Conversely, if Dow and Nikkei futures fall, the dollar will have an opportunity to test support against the yen.
U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
Crude oil hit another low of $55.5, but lost support. In addition, the market forecast the Canadian data is weak, the dollar strengthened, the Canadian dollar. The market is looking forward to the Oct. 10 high-level US.-China trade talks, which indirectly supported the rise in crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. In addition, the United States will release API crude oil inventory tomorrow, if the inventory is significantly reduced, oil and Canadian dollar. Technically, the first target around 1.3225 and 1.3205. But at present the oil price unstable and the crude oil price falls the momentum has not changed, the suggestion USD/CAD first looks up 1.3280 or 1.3305 resistance.
US crude oil futures
The Chicago purchasing managers index and the Dallas Fed business activity index fell short of market expectations yesterday, affecting U.S. crude oil futures prices. Saudi crude oil supplies are gradually repairing, and the market is expected to report a rise in API crude oil inventories tomorrow, which will be bearish for crude oil prices. Expected crude oil inventory results after the release of stable prices. Oil futures prices are expected to rise in the future, driven by an anticipated rise in U.S. jobs data and progress on a US.-China trade deal.
China and the United States hold trade talks as scheduled, risk cooled, gold prices fell. On the other hand, the release of hawkish comments from the federal reserve, the risk of dollar assets fell, and gold prices came downward. In line with the Dow futures rising, gold prices further explore a half-year low. Technically, the gold price short-term important support around US$1486 and US$1484 respectively break through, the downward risk increased. Note the inverse relationship between Dow futures and gold price. If Dow futures continue to climb, gold has a chance to break US$1463 support. Then, there will be a chance for a reversal after the U.S. non-farm payroll.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
On October 10, China and the United States confirmed high-level officials for the 13th round of negotiations. If nothing else, the progress of the trade agreement between the two countries indirectly led to investment in Dow futures. In addition, the market is forecasting US jobs data growth, with US ADP data to be watched tomorrow before the official non-farm payroll on Friday. During that time, Dow futures could start to limit the gains, preparing for correction or reversal.
9550 /10250 resistance
7885 / 7685 support
Technically, US7900 support is very important to support. Now it seems success to find a support, even the gold price fell. If once the rebounded, the bitcoin price would rose. The first target 9550 or10250 resistance
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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