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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 25
Personal opinions today:
The Euro rebounded from its lows after Germany's IFO business sentiment index rose higher expected in September, in line with U.S. consumer confidence and a bigger-than-expected drop in September's Richmond federal reserve manufacturing index. The dollar fell, and the pound rallied nearly 100 points against the dollar. But the UK CBI industrial orders gap fell in September after a British court ruled that the prime minister's request for a parliamentary recess was unconstitutional. US President Donald Trump has again commented on the terms of a US and China trade deal, raising fears that trade talks will not move forward next week. A UN meeting has begun, with reports that US President Trump could be impacted his popularity dropping. Dow futures fell more than 300 points, asset safety, yen, gold and silver prices rose. U.S. API crude oil inventories rose, bullish exit crude oil prices fell.
Today, the New Zealand federal reserve released the interest rate decision, Germany in October Gfk consumer confidence index and the UK September CBI retail sales gap was the market concern, the impact of the European currency. The United Nations conference opened in the United States during trading hours, and it was worth watching as world leaders spoke. Speeches by Fed officials and Bank of England governor Carney. The data, including the total number of new U.S. home sales in August and U.S. EIA crude oil inventories last week, are noteworthy. Dow futures were further weakened if total U.S. home sales fell in August from expected growth, which could weaken the dollar.
[important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
07:50 Bank of Japan minutes
10:00 New Zealand federal reserve interest rate decision ***
14:00 Germany October Gfk consumer confidence index ***
16:00 Swiss ZEW investor confidence index for September **
18:00 CBI retail sales in the UK in September *
20:00 Fed's Evans speaks
21:05 Bank of England Carney speech ***
22:00 US new home sales in August ***
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change **
23:15 Bank of England jay Carney speech ***
Germany's IFO business sentiment index rose sharply in September, U.S. data was weak and the euro bounced back, putting it on track to hit 1.1025 or 1.1040 resistance. Technical trend, the euro is limited to 1.1050 and 1.1070 important resistance, it is worth watching whether the short-term breakthrough. The more important support bits are still 1.0985 and 1.0970.
The British court has ruled that the prime minister's request to adjourn parliament is unconstitutional. More uncertainty preventing Britain from passing a deal before the deadline for leaving the European Union could bearish the pound. In the absence of good news or a weak US economy, the rise in pound could limit significant headwinds to 1.2530, with opportunities to test 1.22.
Australian dollar US dollar
New Zealand central bank interest rate, the outcome can affect the Australian and New Zealand dollar. The trade war between China and the US has been criticized by the US President, and the investment climate could be bearish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. A dovish outlook on monetary policy, combined with next week's RBA rate meeting, could limit gains and is more likely to be bearish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Against the yen, the dollar moved in tandem with Dow and Nikkei futures. Technically, the dollar/yen challenge 108.40 resistance failed, the trend reversed, the dollar/yen with the dow futures performance continued to decline, break 107.35 support level. At this stage, the market is looking forward to the high-level consultation of China's trade minister next week, which is worthy of attention. We are looking forward to a strong rebound in the stock market, without breaking 106.85 or 106.70 support, and the US dollar/yen to challenge 107.50 resistance.
U.S. dollar Canadian dollar
Crude oil prices fell at low levels, limiting the Canadian dollar's rise. Looking forward to the progress of trade ministerial consultation, indirect support for crude oil prices and Canadian dollar trend. Technically, the initial target is 1.3225 and 1.3205. But at present the situation is unclear and crude oil price falls the momentum, the recommendation dollar against Canadian dollar 1.3225 and 1.3205 support, looking at 1.3290 or 1.3310 resistance
US crude oil futures
U.S. API crude oil inventories as a result of the increase, crude oil futures prices lost support fell. US-Iran tensions did not escalate; US consumer confidence falls; Crude oil futures fell after the US President criticised the trade deal, bearish market expectations for talks next week. Beyond politics and progress in trade talks, crude prices could be boosted. The escalation of the situation between the United States and Iran may boost crude oil futures prices, otherwise technical trend, crude oil prices may further test low support.
The U.K. could again face the risk of a hard brexit, and dow Jones industrial average futures fell hundreds of points as U.S. economic data slowed, lifting gold prices above $1,530. Earlier, the gold price, the short-term important support level of $1492, if the support level does not break, the gold price rally is still unchanged. Technical breakthrough in 1520 and 1523 resistance range, explore in 1527 and 1530 important resistance range. Gold is still expected to test resistance between 1538 and 1542 ahead of key U.S. economic data on Thursday and Friday. However, please note that any news changes the investment climate, gold price correction risk. More attention to the Dow futures’s trend and gold price reversal relationship.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
China and the United States failed to make progress in their vice-minister-level consultations, and are looking forward to high-level officials' discussions next week. But the U.S. President's negative comments again, indirectly affecting investment sentiment. Dow futures fell in anticipation of weak U.S. economic data ahead of next week's ministerial meeting. Expect key U.S. data this week, including the final reading on Q2 GDP, durable goods orders and the Michigan consumer confidence index, with downside risks to Dow futures.
9550 /10250 resistance
8250 / 7900 support
The FOMC would not cut rate and monetary policy remained in ear future, there is no excuse to expect any currencies risk. The crypto market demand drops. Now, we have looking at the Dow future, if Dow future rebound, aware the bitcoin price go down. But technically, US7900 support is very important support. If the bitcoin fails to the support, it would test US7000 to US6500 support
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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