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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 24
Personal opinions today:
The Australian and Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell in September, while the US manufacturing PMI rose in September, which was positive news for the dollar and the dollar index rebounded. The British court of justice which is expected to be unconstitutional and negative news for pound until the justice result. The lack of progress in trade talks between China and the US and the slowdown in global economic data have raised fears that central Banks around the world are planning to cut interest rates further, and gold and silver prices have risen. Supply could tighten, supporting crude prices. After a recent dip of $57.60, bulls piled into bullish crude prices in anticipation of tomorrow's U.S. crude inventory results.
Today's European trading session, Germany September IFO business sentiment index leads the market focus. If the result is unexpectedly higher than last month, it could be bullish for the Euro and Swiss franc. In U.S. trading, expectations of a decline in the Richmond fed's manufacturing index and conference board consumer confidence index in September could be bearish for the dollar. The release of U.S. API crude oil inventories last week had a volatile effect on crude futures prices, which could have an impact on the supply and sales shares in the U.S. Dow future.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
16:00 German September IFO business sentiment index ***
18:00 UK CBI industrial orders in September **
21:00 US housing price index in 20 big cities in July **
22:00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index **
22:00 US CB consumer confidence index for September **
Next day 4:30 US API crude oil stocks last week ***
The preliminary reading of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for September disappointed the market and the market waited to see the result. The preliminary reading of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI rose in September, while the dollar strengthened and the Euro weakened. Technical trend, Euro limited to 1.1050 and 1.1070 significant resistance. If the German September IFO business sentiment index picks up sharply today, the U.S. data is weak and the Euro rebounds, it could hit 1.1025 or 1.1040 resistance, compared with the more important support currently at 1.0975 and 1.0960.
Pound against dollar
Markets are waiting for a verdict from the British court, parliament to reopen and the prime minister could face impeachment, blocking a deadline to pass the original Brexit deal and bearish pound. Without any good news, pound will
limit the 1.2530 resistance, but also look forward to testing the 1.22 level.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The federal reserve has no intention of cutting interest rates, the US economic data remain growing, the us dollar rose, negative Australian dollar. The market is waiting for the bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates tomorrow, against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are expected to have further to fall before the reserve Bank of New Zealand moves.
Dollar against yen
Against the yen, the dollar followed the narrow range of Dow and Nikkei futures. Technically, the dollar against the yen challenge 108.40 resistance failure, trend reversal. The dollar against the yen with the Dow futures performance if continue to decline, yesterday successfully tested 107.35 support level. At this stage, the market is looking forward to a high-level consultation with China's trade minister next week. It is worth noting the relevant news. We are looking forward to a strong rebound in the stock market.
U.S. dollar against Canadian dollar
Crude oil prices rebound, the Canadian dollar fell adjusted. The market is looking U.S. API crude oil inventories, as well as the expected trade minister level negotiations, indirectly supporting crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Technically, the initial target is 1.3225 and 1.3205.
United States crude oil futures
Some Saudi oil supplies are expected to resume in October after the attack. Current market estimates of a decline in U.S. API crude oil inventories support the rise in crude futures prices. Besides, tensions between the United States and Iran could trigger a rise in crude oil futures prices. Technically, note that 60.30 is an important resistance. As politics can boost crude oil prices, an escalation in the U.S. and Iraq situation could bullish crude oil futures prices, which should see support at lows.
Rising tensions between the United States and Iran, the risk of a Brexit and fears of a slowing U.S. economy could boost gold prices. Comments from the US President, who has repeatedly called on the federal reserve to cut interest rates, could further raise the price of gold. Technical gold price, short-term important support level of $1492, if there is no break the support, assuming the gold price rally is still unchanged. Technical has reached the expected 1520 and 1523 resistance range, in 1527 and 1530 important resistance, note any chance to drop.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The lack of progress in the vice-minister-level discussions indirectly affected sentiment in Dow futures. The market is looking forward to next week's minister meeting to make progress and support Dow futures. The expected Fed meeting this year with limited room to cut rates will limit the performance of Dow futures. Dow futures are expected to test upside resistance only if the U.S. and China trade war remains unresolved or if the federal reserve indicates it can cut interest rates further. Otherwise, remain mindful of the downside risks to Dow futures.
9880 /10050 resistance
9250 / 9050 support
Before The FOMC cut rate in line and monetary policy remained, the bitcoin price is looking go up. Now, we have looking at the Dow future, if Dow future keeps rise, please aware the bitcoin price go down first.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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