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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 21
Personal opinions today:
US President Donald Trump has publicly said he is not ready to make any deal in trade talks with China, putting political pressure on China as well. The market feels uncertainty about next month trade talks. Also, the performance of large U.S. companies in general, the market lack of confidence in the outlook, the Dow closed lower than the previous day, down over 170 points. Last night, US President Trump again criticised the federal reserve's interest rate policy. He said the U.S. economy is doing well, but called on the federal reserve to cut interest rates by 1% to match U.S. growth. Anyway
, Dow fell, and gold and crude oil prices rebounded from low levels. Gold prices returned $1,500, and U.S. API crude oil inventories were lower than last week, also supporting oil prices.
July CPI and core CPI in Canada and July total existing-home sales in the United States are the market's focus today. But the market most focus on FOMC minutes. Tomorrow will also be the European central bank minutes and the Jackson hole central bank meeting. The FOMC minutes expected to move first against gold and the dollar and second against the Dow. In response to the Fed's interest rate cut in July, the minutes will show the Fed policy and the outlook for future monetary policy. A dovish or hawkish stance has important implications ahead of next month's Fed rate meeting. Among them the most significant influence, believe is affected the gold and Dow.
[Important financial data and events]
16:30 U.K. Public sector borrowing in July
20:30 Canada CPI and core CPI in July
22:00 U.S. Existing homes sales in July
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil stocks
The next day, at 02:00 FOMC minutes
Earlier, European central bank officials said they planned to start a policy easing opportunity in September. ECB minutes should provide some insight into next month's interest rate outlook. Currently, the Euro is limited to the resistance of 1.1105. The ECB minutes followed the release of the minutes from the federal reserve's July monetary policy meeting. The dollar index could fall if a majority of fed officials express support for a significant rate cut. Expect that to stabilise the euro or even rally. Technically, EURUSD recommended support at 1.1075 and 1.1060 and resistance at 1.1105 and 1.1120. However, it must be noted that the release of the FOMC minutes, the European central bank minutes and the annual meetings of G7, it is recommended to pay attention to the volatility of the euro, which is more likely to break through the support and resistance levels and strictly control risks.
U.S. President Donald Trump's call for the federal reserve to cut interest rates, pound as the dollar's gains slowed. But it must be remembered that there is uncertainty about Brexit and that the pound is more likely to fall than rising. Significant resistance is expected to be 1.2200, with a low of 1.20. However, it must be noted that during the release of the FOMC minutes, the European central bank minutes and the annual meeting of global central banks, it is recommended to pay attention to the volatility of the pound, which is more likely to break through the support and resistance levels and strictly control risks.
Earlier the RBA said there was no urgent need to cut interest rates, adding to the Australian dollar. Today, Australia's leading indicators and skilled labor vacancies increased respectively in July, indicating signs of stability in the Australian economy. Markets took the President's comments in anticipation of an interest rate cut by us federal reserve, hoping that the next step would be a thaw in trade relations between the US and China, boosting the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Technically, the Australian dollar is focused on the 0.6785 resistance. If the resistance breaks through 0.6785, it is expected to explore the critical resistance of 0.6815. Investors in the New Zealand dollar can look to the Australian dollar. However, it must be noted that during the release of FOMC minutes and the annual meeting of G7, it is recommended to pay attention to the volatility of the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which is more likely to break through the support and resistance levels and strictly control risks.
The Dow fell before the close, while the dollar fell against the yen following the Dow and Nikkei. It must be noted that during the release of the FOMC minutes, the minutes of the European central bank and the annual meetings of G7, it is recommended to pay attention to the volatility of the dollar-yen, which is more likely to break through the support and resistance levels and strictly control risks. Technically, estimates suggest that the dollar continues to trade between 105 and 106 years. Observe the short term, the dollar against the yen 106.65 and 106.80 as significant resistance, can break is still the key. The bottom support bit pays special attention to 106.05. Keep an eye on the dow and nikkei.
Canada's national economic confidence index has been declining continuously since the mid-to-late July. Affected by the decline of Canada's national economic confidence index, Canada's financial risks have increased, and the Canadian dollar has fallen. But the Canadian dollar rebounded as the U.S. dollar fell and U.S. crude stocks fell. Currently keep watching 1.3330 and 1.3345 resistance, looking down 1.3265 support. It is recommended to keep an eye on the oil price changes, the U.S. President's remarks and the federal reserve's monetary policy record, and master the trend of the U.S. dollar and oil prices, indirectly affecting the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
US President Donald Trump has called on the federal reserve to cut interest rates. The US and China are expected to make good progress in the negotiations. Markets awaited the minutes of the FOMC. Crude oil prices are likely to be capped at a resistance level of 56.55. You have to pay attention to the President's comments and the fed's monetary policy record. A rate cut strongly recommended by fed officials could help boost oil prices. Initial technical resistance, $56.55.
U.S. President Donald Trump has called for the federal reserve to cut interest rates, with markets expecting a rate cut in September. Looking at the minutes of the Fed meeting today, it is worth watching the volatility of the stock market, which indirectly affects the price of gold. If the dow rises, gold could adjust. If the FOMC minutes show calling for a more significant rate cut, that could boost gold prices. Technically, $1,494 is the tech support bit, which is something to watch. Resistance in 1509 and 1513.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Looking ahead to the FOMC minutes tomorrow morning, expect to cut interest rates next month to lift the Dow. But as expected yesterday, the FOMC minutes coming. The Dow lost its value; the US President repeat negative comments on the US and China trade talks. Technically, the Dow is expected to test 26060 and 26200 resistance. The lower support bits are 25860 and 25705, respectively.
10900 /11230 resistance
10550 / 10250 support
The markets are expecting weak U.S. economic data and global growth downtrend. US treasury yields probably upside down again, Fed may cut interest rates in September. It perhaps an excuse to purchase cryptocurrencies for against any risks and interest rate losses. If the sentiment changes, it could be bearish bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Looking ahead to the FOMC minutes tomorrow morning, expect to mention the Fed cut interest rates next month. It could be bullish bitcoin.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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