ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 19
Personal opinions today:
European central bank officials said promoting the economic recovery, intends to restart its 50 billion Euro easing monetary fund and consider cutting interest rates when the ECB meets in September. The Euro fell as the monetary easing measures. Today, the market focus on the eurozone July CPI figures, it could influence the European central bank's monetary policy on September 12. The risk of a hard Brexit continues at the end of October, but the UK parliament is about to reopen, and steady consumer data last week bullish the pound. But it seems last longer.
With no significant U.S. data due early in the week, the market is watching the FOMC minutes, limit the dollar's short-term gains, with the dollar index of 98.3 a key resistance in technical analysis. If the dollar index breaks through this resistance, the dollar continues to strengthen, European currencies and other currencies against the dollar will generally fall, gold prices may break through the $1500 support. Crude oil prices are expected to break through the resistance of 55.65.
[Important financial data and events]
16:00 Eurozone current account for June
17:00 Eurozone CPI monthly and annual rate for July
22:00 Canada national economic confidence index
The final monthly and annual figures for June's current account and July's CPI are worth watching today. The euro zone's final monthly and annual consumer prices are widely expected to have fallen in July. But before the data release, the euro broke through 1.1105 after the European central bank said it planned to start a policy easing in September. It is interesting to see if the euro can rebound above 1.1105 after euro zone data. The federal reserve is also expected to consider a rate cut in September, offsetting the ECB's negative impact on the euro, which could stabilise the Euro. Euro/dollar support levels reference 1.1075 and 1.1060.
With markets pricing in a U.S. recession and the federal reserve could cut interest rates, the dollar's gains have been mute against the pound. Technically, the Brexit issue has limited the rise of the pound. Although pound broke through the critical resistance level of 1.2140 last week, the expectation of the risk of a hard Brexit increase, and the pound has the opportunity to test the low. We suggest the critical resistance of 1.2200 and the low of 1.2050.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will report early tomorrow morning, with no interest rate cut expected, bullish the Australian dollar. In the short term, markets hope weak U.S. data and US-China trade relations keeping well, bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Technically, the AUDUSD must focus on the 0.6795 and 0.6815 resistance ranges. Investors in the New Zealand dollar can look to the Australian dollar.
Global economic growth failed to improve, and the Dow bounced back. Improving relations between China and the United States boosted the investment climate, just as the dollar rose against the yen, following the lead of the Dow and the Nikkei. Technically, if there is no further progress ahead of the US and China trade talks, pushing up the Dow and Nikkei, the dollar is expected to trade between 105 and 106 yen. It is recommended to observe the performance of the Dow and Nikkei and explore the dollar-yen trend and volatility.
The Canadian dollar fell last week amid speculation of a recession in the United States and around the world. OPEC released its monthly oil market report, which showed it supports reasonable production controls and controlled supply to bullish oil prices. The Canadian dollar benefited, while the U.S. dollar fell against the Canadian dollar. Technically, keep the wait and see a resistance of 1.3335 and 1.3350, look down at 1.3265 or 1.3215 support. Keep an eye on oil prices.
US crude oil futures
The US government has delayed implementing the extra tariffs for some Chinese imports, and China and the US have agreed to hold talks as usual in September, benefiting the crude oil price. OPEC releases its monthly oil market report. The report showed production need to control supply and properly, bullish crude oil prices. No significant U.S. economic data out early in the week, markets watched the FOMC minutes on Thursday. Market expectations that the Fed is considering a rate cut will help stabilise and bullish crude oil prices. Current technical resistance, $55.65 and $56.55.
After the U.S. economic data, the market expected the federal reserve to cut interest rates. Besides, the US eased additional tariffs on some Chinese consumer goods imports, improve the investment sentiment. US treasury yields maintain reasonable level, the Dow rebounded last week and gold prices adjusted. But another way to look at it, the Fed could cut interest rates, bullish gold prices. Technically, refer to 1502 support and 1521 resistance.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Weak US data and global growth downward. US treasury yields could be upside down again. Now watching the federal reserve may cut interest rates next month, it could be bullish the Dow. A further improvement in US-China relations, if the US President's comments, could boost the economy and optimistic the Dow probably. Technically, the Dow is expected to test 26250 resistance. The lower support is 25860 and 25705, respectively.
10650 / 10900 resistance
10050 / 9850 support
As the trade war between China and the US cool down. Decreasing the cryptocurrencies demands. However, markets are expecting weak U.S. economic data and global growth downtrend. US treasury yields probably upside down again, Fed may cut interest rates in September. It perhaps an excuse to purchase cryptocurrencies for against any risks and reduce the interest rate. If the sentiment changes, it could be bearish bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Also, here recommend check out the trends of gold price and the bitcoin price in the same direction.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 19