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ATFX Update Market - 2019.07.31


Personal opinions today:

Market focus today ADP payroll change in July and the FOMC interest rate decision and policy statement. Then, the Fed chairman held a news conference. First, markets are focusing on U.S. July ADP payrolls change, which will help calculate the official nonfarm payrolls data. In addition, the results of the US job data help judge FOMC interest rate decisions and policy statements. The market is pricing in the FOMC rate could be cut by 25 basis points this time, bringing the benchmark rate down to a range of 2% to 2.25%.

With US President Trump again publicly urging the federal reserve to cut interest rates sharply, gold market speculators are watching for a possible 50 basis point cut in the FOMC rate, which hit a high of $1,433 last night. The FOMC is more likely to keep rates on hold if it decides to cut rates by 25 basis points in line with market expectations. That could give a big boost to the dollar, sending gold prices lower and hurting other major currencies against the dollar. In addition, Fed chairman Powell called a press conference to explain that monetary policy statements and future monetary policy.

[Important financial data and events]

14:00 UK Nationwide house price index for July
14:45 France CPI in July
15:55 German unemployment rate for July
17:00 The Eurozone unemployment rate, CPI for June
17:00 Eurozone GDP for the second quarter
20:15 U.S. ADP payroll change in July
20:30 Canada GDP in May
21:45 US Chicago PMI for July
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change
The next day 02:00, FOMC interest rate decision
The next day 02:30 Fed chairman holds a press conference

Today suggestion :

1.1165/1.1180 resistance
1.1120/1.1105 support
Markets focused on U.S. ADP payroll in July and the FOMC's decision on interest rates, looking ahead the Eurozone unemployment rate, CPI in July and euro zone second-quarter GDP. If the Eurozone data are in line with expectations, there will be no surprise. The euro is likely to come downward to limit gains as markets focus on U.S. ADP payrolls and FOMC rate decisions in July. Technically, the euro still has an opportunity to test resistance to 1.1165 or 1.1180. Support level refer to 1.1120 and 1.1105. It is worth noting that the Swiss franc is often affected by the trend of the euro.

1.2205/1.2230 resistance
1.2125/1.2105 support
The new British prime minister says the previous Brexit deal is finish and he will make and negotiate a New Deal with the European Union a deadline of late October. It is widely believed in the market that the disputes and differences between the two sides cannot reach a consensus, and the UK may leave the EU with no agreement in the end. Without good news from the UK government to lift the pound and improve the mood, the pound is heading for 1.20. Currently the first reference support bit is 1.2105, followed by 1.2065. But the FOMC's decision on interest rates and Fed chairman press conference are important to watch. If Fed shows continue to cut interest rates, which would be bearish for the dollar, bullish pound.

0.6870/0.6855 support
0.6910/0.6935 resistance
China official manufacturing PMI beat expectations and Australia consumer price index rose in the second quarter as trade talks between the United States and China got a good way. Watching U.S. ADP payrolls and Fed interest rates for July is expected to bullish the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollars after U.S. job data and Fed interest rates, combined with progress in the U.S. - China trade talks.

108.80/109.05 resistance
108.45/108.25 support
The governor of the bank of Japan held a press conference yesterday, in which he said that if the economy contracts in the future, BoJ will help the monetary policy of quantitative easing strengthen. But at present, the bank of Japan has not indicated that it is about to expand monetary policy, the yen. Currently, the market is watching the FOMC's interest rate decision and policy statement and the fed chairman's press conference. Before the news, it is recommended to pay attention to the Nikkei and Dow, leading the dollar to rise against the yen. Technically, it is recommended to focus on 108.25 support and 109.05 resistance.

1.3175/1.3205 resistance
1.3125/1.3105 support
The market is waiting for a comparison of U.S. and Canada jobs data, and yesterday estimated the U.S. dollar may be trading in a narrow range against the Canadian dollar. But U.S. crude oil prices rebounded, indirectly boosting the Canadian dollar. Current technical analysis estimates that the USDCAD adjustment wave is testing 1.3125 or 1.3105 support. If crude oil prices rise further, the USDCAD is expected to break through 1.3105 support. The Canadian dollar is expected to follow oil prices ahead of the FOMC decision and policy statement and the Fed chairman's press conference.

US crude oil futures
58.60/59.15 resistance
57.15/56.30 support
The U.S. President criticized the federal reserve's monetary policy and requested cut interest rate that boost crude oil prices. In addition, the trade talks is keep going, and the market expects progress in the talks to boost oil demand, bullish oil prices. This analysis recently pointed out that U.S. crude oil futures have tested 57.15 resistance after the price consolidation and are now rising further. If the FOMC releases a rate cut of more than 25 basis points or the Fed chairman's press conference signals that the rate cut will continue, oil prices could test $59 to $60. If not, dip $57 or less.

1434/1438 resistance
1414/1411 support
Global Central Banks are maintaining quantitative and the fed is likely to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut today, boosting gold prices. After the fed meeting, there was no sign of further interest rate cuts ready. As well as progress in trade talks, gold also has the opportunity to test its 1411 support level. Currently ahead of results, the recommendation focuses on significant resistance of $1,434 and $1,438. If it fail, it has a chance to go down low. In addition, if the Dow rises, gold prices may also fall, please note.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27345/27420 resistance
27090/27010 support
The Dow continued to rise after initial second-quarter GDP data beat expectations, corporate earnings beat market expectations, ADP job data rose to 150,000 in July and the federal reserve cut interest rates probably only 25 basis points. With the fed's rate cut expected to be limited, investors are focused on whether the U.S. jobs data and trade talks can make progress to restore the investment climate and lift stocks. If there are no surprises after all of today's results, keep an eye out for the Dow dip into low support at 27090 and 27010, and for resistance at 27345 and 27420.

9900 / 10250 resistance
9350 / 9100 support
US economy growth over expected. Today, the market focus on US ADP job data which is looking good number compared with last month. US Fed maybe only cut 25 basic point interest rate in this end of month, US dollar gains. Now, it is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. More focus on US job data and the FOMC statement. Recommend keep watching the gold price volatility how affected the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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