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ATFX Update Market - 2019.07.23


Personal opinions today:

This week, the market will be watching U.S. manufacturing indexes for major cities, manufacturing PMI, existing and new home sales, durable goods orders, and the U.S. GDP in the second quarter. Recording memory, U.S. economic data has shown steady gains and job growth has returned to normal. Adding to the fed's clarification on the interest rate cut level , the market is pricing in a rate cut of no more than 50 basis points at the end of the month, correction the dollar loss.

The British morning time, the new U.K. prime minister result announced then the prime minister speech today or tomorrow. European central bank monetary decision on Thursday. Uncertainty sentiment send safe-haven flows to the dollar.

If the new British prime minister's comments trigger market expectations of a hard Brexit and risk on, watch for further declines in pound and the euro.

[Important financial data and events]

18:00 UK CBI industrial order in July
21:00 U.S. FHFA home price index for May
22:00 U.S. existing homes sold in June
22:00 U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index for July
U.K. morning Britain new prime minister announces
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude inventories

Today suggestion :

1.1225/1.1260 resistance
1.1190/1.1155 support
U.S. economic and inflation data turned out to be higher than market expectations, with the fed cutting rates by less than 50 basis points, correction the dollar loss. Other negative impact of the euro, the European central bank will announce the result of interest rate on Thursday, and the market generally believes that there will be adding the new QE of monetary policy, the rise of money supply, the bearish the euro. In addition, Britain announced the new British prime minister today, and after taking official speaks. The risk of a hard Brexit could push European currencies lower. The weakness of the euro has indirectly affected the Swiss franc. The euro is now testing support for 1.1190 and 1.1155. If pound losses intensify, the euro could break through 1.1190 and test 1.1155.

1.2505/1.2545 resistance
1.2420/1.2380 support
Announcing the conservative party leader and the new British prime minister in U.K. morning, the pound is likely to take a bigger hit if Johnson wins, with the pound having a chance to test to 1.2380. Watch for comments from the new prime minister today and any time tomorrow. If the new prime minister emphasizes a no-deal Brexit with the EU by the end of October, the pound could move down. The first support levels for reference as 1.2420 and 1.2380. On the other hand, the talks softly and show more room for negotiation with EU, favor the pound, keeping an eye on resistance levels of 1.2505 or 1.2545.

0.7035/0.7055 resistance
0.7015/0.6995 support
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points at the end of the month, while the Australian dollar has fallen indirectly. The U.S. dollar rose ahead of U.S. economic data this week, believing the Australian dollar will remain weak. If the trade talks between China and US make progress, the Australian dollar will rise. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the downward trend, 0.7035 and 0.7055 as references resistance. The first support ranges are 0.7015 and 0.6995. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, the same impact on the trend of the NZ dollar.

107.85/107.55 support
108.30/108.60 resistance
The dollar rose as market estimates narrowed the fed's rate cut at the end of the month. The Dow was up last night, Nikkei was up 1% today opening, USDJPY followed rose. The Dow and Nikkei are technically noteworthy. If the related index rises, will lead the USDJPY upward. For references resistance, 108.30 and 108.60 is worth watching.

1.3085/1.3055 support
1.3145/1.3175 resistance
Canada retail sales fell more than expected in May, to minus 1.8 percent from the forecast of 0.5 percent, down from 1.6 percent in April. In addition, crude oil futures prices did not rebound, the USD strength, the Canadian dollar rise stalled. Canada has no data this week and is expected to be passive. If crude oil prices rose, there are opportunities to boost the Canadian dollar. Weak U.S. economic data could lead to a stronger Canadian dollar. Refers to the technical trend yesterday, the USDCAD attention 1.3085 and 1.3105 resistance, last night were broken. Currently testing 1.3145 recent resistance and rebound wave adjustment 38.2%, 1.3175. Note today's U.S. economic data performance, indirect impact on the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
57.00/57.40 resistance
55.50/54.90 support
The lack of progress in China and US trade talks, combined with negative comments from the U.S. President, is still weighing on oil demand expectations. If the tension between Iran and China eases, crude oil supplies rise, the estimated negative crude oil prices. The market is waiting to see how many U.S. API crude stocks there will be tomorrow, and a big increase in inventories could weigh against crude prices. At present, the technical trend, the U.S. crude oil futures maintain 55.40 and 54.90 support above, the trend is expected to test 57.00 or challenge 57.40 resistance.

1426/1430 resistance
1415/1411 support
With the federal reserve now expected to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points by the end of July, COMEX gold contracts tumbled, declined the price of gold to around $1,415. If the market continues to estimate the rate cut narrow, the expected us economic data and results are strong, the dollar rose, gold prices may expand to go lower. Watching the key U.S. data releases this week that could serve as a guide to the fed's interest rate outlook next week. The price of gold price volatility. The recommendation focuses on significant support at $1411 and resistance at $1430.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27345/27420 resistance
27090/27010 support
U.S. consumer confidence up, inflation data slightly up, and market estimates of the fed's expected rate cut only 0.25% not 0.5%, suppose negative for Dow. Technically, the recent trend of the Dow failed to test the high resistance. If sentiment continues to decline, the Dow could test 27090 support. If this support would broke, the next level of reference support is 27010. For now, keep an eye on the technical resistance ranges 27345 and 27420.

10650 / 10950 resistance
9900 / 9500 support
US economy growth over expected. The Fed maybe only cut 0.25% interest rate in this end of month, less then 0.5% before. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Also, the dovish speech from Fed officials, crypto currencies demand declined. If its noise continued, the Fed will cut only 0.25% rate as expected in this end of month. Assuming the bitcoin probably test US9500. But investors should keep watching the US data in this week to compare the market sentiment.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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