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ATFX Update Market - 2019.07.18


Personal opinions today:

The US President said to impose additional tariffs on us $325 billion worth of Chinese imports at any time. Although the Chinese government has continued to restraint and continue to engage in negotiations, but Trump’s speech affected the investment climate, the performance of global stock markets and the downward on Asian currencies.

The federal reserve releases its beige book economic report. The beige book is likely to provide further hints to worries about the U.S. economy decline and the possibility that deflation. The fed's Beige book outlook suggests an opportunity for interest-rate cuts at the end of the month. The dollar fell, U.S. stocks fell on fears, crude oil futures also fell and gold rose on risk aversion.

Today's recommendations focus on UK retail sales, U.S. jobless claims last week and the Philadelphia fed manufacturing index for July. Tomorrow, Japan announces national CPl for June. Market expectations fell on an annualized basis and were flat on a monthly basis, with the dollar expected to rise against the yen.

[Important financial data and events]

09:30 Australian unemployment rate in June
14:00 Swiss trade account for June
16:30 UK monthly retail sales rate in June
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims last week
20:30 US Philadelphia fed manufacturing index for July
22:00 US leading indicator for June
The next day, at 2:15 The federal reserve Williams spoke
The next day 07:30 Japan June national CPl, core CPl

Today suggestion:

1.1205/1.1185 support
1.1255/1.1270 resistance
The euro rose slightly after the federal reserve's beige book showed an uncertain outlook and the fed may cut interest rates. Today no Eurozone data release, mainly on the U.S. data, which is more interesting to watch for jobless claims. Technically, the first major support level for the euro is 1.1185, but there are short-term opportunities to challenge resistance at 1.1255 or 1.1270. It is worth noting that the performance of the euro indirectly affects the Swiss franc.

1.2455/1.2485 resistance
1.2380/1.2350 support
Markets are worried about the outlook for the UK economy and are even more worried about the outcome of the next prime minister next Tuesday. But yesterday, the pound rebounded from a low of 1.2380 after UK consumer and retail price indices beat expectations for June. Pound rose after the federal reserve's beige book regional economic report showed an uncertain outlook and the fed cut interest rates. Estimated from the market data expectations, the trend may rise after falling. Technically, the pound still has reasons to fall, after yesterday 1.2380 support, can further reference 1.2350 support. Reference resistance level 1.2455/1.2485 resistance.

0.7025/0.7040 resistance
0.6990/0.6975 support
The federal reserve possibility of a rate cut, with markets pricing in a lower chance of Fed rate cuts by the end of the month, indirectly keeping the Australian dollar higher. Australia's June unemployment rate was followed in the evening by U.S. jobless claims last week. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the resistance of 0.7025 and 0.7040. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, continue to influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar. Technically, New York is adjusting after a failure to challenge resistance of 0.6750 and suggests watching for a break or not.

107.65/107.50 support
108.35/108.55 resistance
The dollar fell against the yen after the US President threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports, affected investment sentiment and increasing risk aversion after negative comments on the trade talks. A sharp improvement in Japan's trade account also helped boost the yen today. After the release of the data, it is worth watching the us dollar's steady rise to 108 against the yen. Technically, 107.65 and 107.50 are important short-term supports, with resistance of 108.35 and 108.55 above. Watch the Dow and Nikkei to assess the USDJPY.

1.3045/1.3030 support
1.3095/1.1315 resistance
The monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada fell in June. Yesterday, Canada reported that the monthly rate of CPI fell in June. In addition, U.S. and China trade talks stalled crude oil futures prices fell, the Canadian dollar has the opportunity to fall, the USDCAD has the opportunity to rise. Today, the U.S. jobless claims last week and the Philadelphia federal reserve for July are worth watching for U.S. dollar volatility, which indirectly affects the Canadian dollar. More importantly, keep an eye on the trend of crude oil prices, which may directly affect the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures USOIL
57.10/58.30 resistance
56.40/55.90 support
Oil prices were affected yesterday by a sharp increase in crude inventories at the us API and EIA compared with last week. In addition, crude oil futures prices fell again after the US President's negative comments on China and US trade talks further affected oil demand expectations. Yesterday expected crude oil price support level, has reached the 56.45 support target. If the number of U.S. jobless claims last week and the Philadelphia federal reserve bank's manufacturing index for July are positive for U.S. economic growth expectations, the indirect benefit on oil prices is worth watching.

1429/1433 resistance
1417/1413 support
The federal reserve's beige book said the U.S. economy and inflation conditions were likely to slow, economic activity continued to suffer from the trade war with China, and the fed's regional branches considered supporting rate cuts. Expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut stalled trade talks with China, and stocks fell, boosting gold. If the dollar finds support today in U.S. weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia fed's manufacturing index for July, gold prices could adjust, and vice versa.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27225/27395 resistance
27095/26880 support
Dow continued to be affected by the US President's negative comments on the China and US trade talks and a decline in the investment climate in the global stock market. If the sentiment doesn't improve, the Dow could fall. Technical references support 27,095 or 26,880.

10350 / 10850 resistance
9550 / 9050 support
US economy growth over the market expected, but the China market and US trade talk affected the market sentiment. The Fed still have chance to cut rate in this end of month. It is suppose bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. Technically, the bitcoin price maybe back to US$10,000 above. Now the references support, change to US$9550 or 9050 support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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