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ATFX Update Market - 2019.07.17


Personal opinions today:

US June retail sales and core retail sales were also higher than expected, with retail sales rising and the U.S. housing market index inching up in July. From these data on inflation, the market is pricing in a lower chance of a Fed rate cut. German and Eurozone economic sentiment continued to fall, with UK unemployment rate and jobless claims rising in June. The Bank of England may need to cut interest rates as the European central bank and Bank of England maintain loose monetary policy, market estimates suggest. When the dollar strengthened, European currencies fell sharply.

In addition, the US President once again stressed that additional tariffs on Chinese imports worth 325 billion dollars could be imposed at any time, showing that the US President is once again dissatisfied with the China and US trade talks. The U.S. President's comments weighed on the sentiment of stock market, which affected the performance of global stock markets and Asian currencies.

Important dat today, the European inflation data released today, including the UK June CPI and retail price index monthly rate, the Eurozone June CPI monthly rate and annual final value, market expectations fell from the previous month, contributing to the recent decline in British pound and the euro. If the UK and Eurozone inflation data turn out to be in line with expectations or beat market expectations, the euro and British pound will be bullish, and even the Swiss franc will be bullish. Canadian inflation and core CPl and manufacturing data in the evening are expected to weigh on the currency ahead of the release. Also tomorrow, the federal reserve releases its beige book regional economic report at 2 a.m. Because the beige book is likely to shed more light on the real economy and inflation, the outlook for each fed district branch will affect the fed's interest-rate decisions at the end of the month. Believe before and after the release of the dollar, U.S. stocks and commodity prices volatility, worth paying attention to.

[Important financial data and events]

16:30 UK CPI and Retail price monthly rates for June
17:00 Eurozone CPI for June
20:30 US the permits and housing starts in June
20:30 Canada CPI rate of June
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 12
The next day, at 02:00, the federal reserve releases its beige book of economic conditions

Today suggestion:

1.1205/1.1185 support
1.1235/1.1255 resistance
Manufacturing rose in line with expectations and U.S. retail sales beat expectations. The euro fell to near 1.12 after the euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade account for may and the ZEW economic sentiment index for July fell. Eurozone consumer prices for June were expected to be flat today at both a monthly and annual rate, but there are opportunities for a fall. If the euro zone data are in line with expectations, it could be positive for the euro. Tomorrow morning, at 2 a.m., the federal reserve releases its beige book regional economic report. Technically, the key support level for the euro is 1.1185 and the key resistance level is 1.1255. It is worth noting that the performance and trend of the euro often affect the Swiss franc indirectly.

1.2455/1.2475 resistance
1.2370/1.2350 support
The UK yesterday reported a rise in June unemployment rate and jobless claims, disappointing and worrying about the country's economic outlook, adding to fears about the outcome of the next prime minister next week. June CPI and rpi data released today reflect UK inflation and the direction of UK monetary policy. In addition, at 2 a.m. tomorrow, the federal reserve will release its beige book regional economic condition. Technically, British pound has broken through its end-2018 low, and if it falls further, it may exceed 1.2350 support, which is worth watching. If the dollar changes and the British pound rises tomorrow morning, watch for resistance of 1.2475 or 1.2505

0.7035/0.7050 resistance
0.6990/0.6975 support
Federal reserve chairman Powell left open the possibility of a rate cut, U.S. retail sales beat expectations in June, and market expectations for the fed to cut interest rates by the end of the month declined, indirectly limiting the Australian dollar's upside and adjusting for declines. Tomorrow morning, at 2 am, the federal reserve will release its beige book. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the resistance 0.7035 and 0.7050. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, continue to influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar. Technically, NZDUSD suggests watching for the fed's beige book and how to affect the NZDUSD.

107.85/107.65 support
108.35/108.55 resistance
Federal reserve Powell said to maintain rate cut expectations, limit the dollar. US retail sales better-than-expected, had boosted the dollar against the yen. Unfortunately, the US President once again made negative comments on China and US trade deals, threatening to impose additional tariffs on other Chinese imports, affected stocks market and USDJPY fell. Tomorrow morning, at 2 a.m., the federal reserve releases its beige book. The contents may affected the market sentiment and the USDJPY.Technically, 107.80 and 107.65 are short-term supports, with resistance of 108.35 and 108.55 above. Watch the dow and nikkei to assess the dollar against the yen.

1.3055/1.3030 support
1.3095/1.1315 resistance
The monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada fell in June, and today Canada released the monthly CPI for June. In addition, API crude oil inventories reported the stocks rose sharply from last week, crude oil futures prices fell, the Canadian dollar fell. Today's focus on Canadian inflation data, CPI and the beige book report from FED, worth watching the U.S. dollar volatility, indirectly affecting the Canadian dollar. In addition, it is recommended to keep an eye on the trend of crude oil prices, which may also affected the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
58.45/59.00 resistance
57.10/56.45 support
Crude oil futures fell as U.S. President negative comments on U.S. trade with China and change on crude oil demand expectations. Yesterday it pointed out that if the crude oil market is affected by other factors, crude oil futures prices fall. The current technical break through the reference support level of $59.00 and $58.45 that will be the new resistance. Reference support bits can be noted for 57.10 and 56.45 support. Note the beige book, which is likely to reflect the outlook for U.S. manufacturing and industrial production, which could affect crude oil demand expectations and the prices.

1414/1419 resistance
1401/1396 support
U.S. inflation data rose more than expected in June, retail sales also beat market expectations in June, and gold prices fell, pulling back US$1,400 support. Markets are now waiting for the beige book, which provides further confirmation of the state of the economy and inflation. The market may be used to assess the chances of the Fed fund rate cut at the end of the month, and gold prices may fluctuate again.

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
27425/27515 resistance
27220/27095 support
U.S. inflation and retail sales rose in June, while economic data showed tentative improvement and market expectations for a rate cut by the end of the month fell. The Dow was drop by negative comments from the US President. Today's focus on the US beige book, the content can further confirm the state of the US economy. Ahead of the beige book, the Dow's gains were limited, noting the recent correction in high resistance. A positive outlook in the beige book, combined with earnings from U.S. listed companies, could boost the Dow. And vice versa.

9750 / 9950 resistance
9050 / 8850 support
US economy growth over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate in this end of month. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, the bitcoin price broke US$10,000 support and fell last night, over the first targeted US$9750 key support. Now the references support, looking at US$9050 or 8850 support. Keep watching the beige book tomorrow morning, and the bitcoin price may fluctuate again.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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