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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 31
Personal opinions today:
Japan's retail sales rose at an annual rate in February and the unemployment rate was flat. China's official manufacturing PMI over expect, reached 52 in March, higher than previous readings. Dow futures and Asian stocks rose. Stocks rose at the start of trading in Asia as risk aversion cooled, the dollar rose against the yen and gold and silver prices fell. Before the Chinese data, the Australian and New Zealand dollars had fallen, then rebounded. Separately, gold and silver were supported at $1,610 and $13.9 respectively. Last night, U.S. crude oil futures fell as low as $19.25 then rebounded. US Oil prices held up as China's official manufacturing sector PMI rose in March. For now, investors are watching the U.S. Chicago PMI for March and U.S. API crude inventories.
During the European session today, the focus will be on the German unemployment rate and Eurozone CPI data for March. The consensus forecast for a decline in European data on expectations that the data would be affected by the outbreak limited gains in European currencies, which are more likely to be bearish ahead of the release. But the market is more expecting a weak U.S. ADP payrolls data tomorrow, and investors are still likely to bet against the dollar index and U.S. stocks ahead of ADP and non-farm payroll. European currencies, commodity currencies, and gold and silver prices will have a chance to rise. Crude oil price still has a chance to fall, testing key support levels of $19 to $18.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance
14:00 UK Q4 GDP final* *
4:00 UK Q4 current account *
14:30 Swiss retail sales in February * *
14:45 France March CPI monthly rate * *
15:55 German unemployment rate * * *
17:00 Eurozone March CPI***
20:30 Canada January GDP * * *
21:45 US Chicago PMI in March ***
22:00 US CB consumer confidence index for March *
Next day 04:30 US API crude stocks change * * *
Investors believe the coronavirus spread across Europe. The Euro fell against the dollar in 4 hours on expectations of a decline in European data today. Now, 1.0965 is one of the important support levels, the reference 10 moving average resistance is 1.1060. With the release of the U.S. jobs report for March starting tomorrow, the bearish dollar is expected to help the bullish euro/dollar view, believing that resistance at 1.1060 has a chance to break back above the 1.11 level.
The British pound to the dollar
Investors believe the economic data drop in Europe today, the euro and pound also fell against the dollar. In the 4-hour chart, breaking above the 10 moving average. Pound dollar below test 20 moving average support level 1.2285. After today's European session, investors are expected to look ahead to tomorrow's U.S. jobs report.
Australian dollar/US dollar
The Australian dollar was trading at $0.6072 today ahead of the release of China's official manufacturing PMI for March. As the data beat market expectations led the Australian dollar to recoup losses against the US dollar expectations. It is believed that investors are expecting weak U.S. economic and employment data this week, and the U.S. dollar may extend its decline, which could see the Australian dollar test a rally against the U.S. dollar. In the short-term, the AUDUSD movement is likely to be limited to 0.6200 resistance.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Dow futures and the Nikkei led the dollar to remain unchanged against the yen. Believe that if Dow futures and the Nikkei are likely to fall, the dollar/yen could test the 107 level. Technically, 50% of the adjusted wave is 106.40, and the lower support level is 105.20. Significant resistance is at 109.22.
US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4145/1.4125 support level
Crude oil prices continue to decline trend, bearish Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar rose to 1.41 against the Canadian dollar as crude oil prices fell. If crude continues to fall, short-term support for the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar could be at $1.4145 or $1.4125.
US crude oil futures
As global oil demand slows, Saudi oil producers are in no intention to call off the price cuts, and the price of crude continues to limit $25 resistance. Weak expectations for U.S. PMI and ADP private payrolls data, which are expected tomorrow, suggest that continued efforts to limit the rise in crude oil prices could also test another $19 low. Long-term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines as they test low crude prices ahead of this week's European and U.S. data releases.
The federal reserve introduced unlimited funds and US jobless claims rose sharply. The coronavirus outbreak is expected to be more severe in the United States than in Europe and Asia. Tomorrow's weak U.S. PMI and ADP private payrolls data for March, as well as expectations for further consumption data, could push the dollar lower and the gold price would higher. For now, watch for gold and silver prices to adjust together. Preliminary estimates put the gold price at $1,610 or below. Silver tends to move in step with gold, keeping an eye out for support at $1,608 and $13.56.
Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures fell as investors continued to bet against the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings. Investors continue to worry about the spread of the coronavirus in Europe and the United States, believing Dow futures have limited strength to rebound. In addition, the U.S. manufacturing PMI and ADP payroll are expected to be weak tomorrow, noting that Dow futures may fall. If the adjusted wave estimation, 20755 and 20435 are the first support levels. Short term support levels 21610 and 21295.
6800/ 7000 resistance
5700 / 5550 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. If it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices
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