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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 9
Personal opinions today:
U.S. non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average wages in February, all beat market expectations. The dollar index and Dow futures had rebounded. But affected by the global new pneumonia, investor confidence is still not optimistic, limiting the rise of the dollar index and Dow futures. Asian trading opened today, the dollar index and Dow futures and Asian stocks fell sharply. Gold, silver price and the Japanese yen, opened higher in Asia session. In crude oil price fell 30%, it was because the OPEC fails to cut in output with energy ministers with Russia. The price of crude oil fell as low as $30 a barrel. The panic drop in crude oil prices may be short term. The sentiment is also expected to improve, with global equity confidence expected to rise and the dollar index and Dow futures rebounding.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance
US daylight saving time begins * * *
Energy ministers and executives from key oil-producing countries meet * * *
07:50 Japan Q4 real GDP revised * *
07:50 Japan January Trade account * *
14:45 Swiss unemployment rate in February * *
15:00 German industrial output in January *
15:00 German Trade account in January * * *
17:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report * * *
17:30 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for March **
20:15 Canada Housing starts in February * *
22:00 U.S. CB employment trends index for February *
The European central bank set interest rates on Thursday. Investors see an opportunity for the euro to rise against the dollar as the ECB may follow international central Banks in cutting interest rates, possibly in line with the ECB and more likely with other easing measures. It is recommended to note initial significant resistance. If the dollar rebounds, the euro could test the 1.12 or 1.11 level against the dollar. Currently, the initial support bit is 1.1285 or 1.1265.
The pound to the dollar
The dollar fell, with pounds trading above $1.30. Earlier, the British finance minister said there were no plans to cut interest rates and plans to increase measures to stimulate the British economy, comments that many pounds. However, the UK and the EU trade negotiations continue to deadlock, although the two sides said that the negotiations are expected to be completed by the end of the year, but have to prevent, during the negotiations at any time serious differences, resulting in a fall in the pound. For now, it is recommended to note the initial significant resistance.
Last week, the federal reserve cut interest rates sharply, pushing the AUD higher, but still technically limited to the 0.66 level, which had peaked at 0.6656. Short term technical trend, the Australian dollar fell to us dollar 20 hours average line, the trend may be lower, next test the level of 0.64.
Dollar to yen
This morning's release of Japan Q4 GDP and January trade account was a bearish for the Japanese stock market, as companies poured money into the yen. In addition, the spread of new pneumonia, the U.S. 10 - and 30-year Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, the dollar broke through last year's low of 104.65 against the yen. Without an improvement in the spread of the disease, global stock markets will lack the strength to rally. The dollar may test the 2016 low of 101 against the yen. It is recommended to keep a close eye on movements in global stock markets, especially Dow futures, to track the dollar-yen trend.
Us dollar/Canadian dollar
The failure of a meeting between OPEC and energy ministers to discuss a deal to cut output sent crude prices down 30%, hurting the Canadian dollar. Technically, the reference USDCAD may test resistance level 1.3750. Only with oil prices recovering in the US trading session, the U.S. dollar is expected to fall against the Canadian dollar to test below the 1.35 level.
US crude oil futures
Crude Oil prices fell after a meeting of OPEC and energy ministers failed to discuss cutting output. Energy ministers and business executives from major oil-producing countries are meeting today in a deal that could boost crude prices. In the short term, U.S. crude oil futures could hit an all-time low of $25.96 if the crude oil price falls to $28 support.
Stock markets around the world have fallen amid global fears about the spread of the disease. The outbreak hit the U.S. economy hard, risk aversion in the market, gold prices continued to rise. Gold rose to $1,700. If global equity markets continue to fall over the next two days, gold could go up to $1,720 and up to $1,740. Believe, the stock market to stabilize, break 1680 support, the first phase of support $1650 - $1645.
Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy and corporate profits. Separately, the failure of talks between OPEC and Russia's energy minister intensified fears in investment markets and Dow futures crossed 25,540 support levels. Now, wait and see the 2019 low of 24615, if the breakthrough, the next 24270 support or possibly until 2018 low.
8445/ 8550 resistance
7850 / 7655 support
Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy. Cryptocurrencies investors drawback fund, the bitcoin price fell sharply.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices
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