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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 8
Personal opinions today:
Iran hit back at the United States airbase. Dow futures fell, while gold, the yen, and crude oil rose. Asian markets opened this morning, with broad regional markets falling. The situation is expected to remain tense, with investor sentiment likely to persist throughout the day, providing an opportunity to push global stock markets lower. In general, risk aversion has picked up, with the dollar falling from the 108 level to the 107 level, while equity markets continue to fall and may try the 106 level.
In European trading today, markets watched for the final reading on economic and industrial sentiment， consumer confidence in the eurozone. In U.S. trading, the U.S.ADP job data change for December, it can be used as the day after tomorrow's U.S. non-farm payrolls data, please pay attention! In addition, the market risk aversion continues, please keep an eye on the stock market volatility, especially the Dow futures.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
15:45 France trade account **
16:30 UK Halifax quarterly house price index **
18:00 Eurozone economic and industrial sentiment index ***
18:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index final **
21:15 U.S. ADP job change ***
23:00 U.S. Fed governor Janet Brainard **
23:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories change**
The U.K. Halifax quarterly house price index for December and the Eurozone economic and industrial sentiment index for December were released today. Markets wait to see how the data plays out and predict the economic outlook for Europe. But the current structural problem is uncertainty over Iran, which markets fear could bearish the European economy and further bearish the Euro. The dollar rose and the Euro fell tonight if U.S. employment figures for December beat market expectations. Technically, the Euro‘s resistance at $1.1195. If this resistance is not broken, the EURUSD will try either $1.1125 or $1.1115 support.
Pound to dollar
The Iran tensions bearish the European economy and indirectly affect Britain. With the Brexit deadline approaching, the UK economy after Brexit is still full of challenges. The pound’s trend will be down before the end of the month. Technical analysis, sterling dollar 1.3282 is important resistance, the overall trend downward. Short-term resistance level note 1.3205 resistance. The dollar is up and the pound could fall if ADP data beats expectations today.
Australian dollar to dollar
The RBA expressed they would cut interest rates at its February meeting. Interest rate futures on the investment futures market show a chance of a rate cut of more than 60% in June, a bearish for the Australian dollar. Yesterday the Australian dollar adjusted significantly, the breakthrough of 0.6900 and 0.6885 support. If there is no progress in Australia and global trade, the Australian dollar is expected to remain downward against the U.S. dollar, testing its lows. First significant support as 0.6835 support.
Dollar to yen
Stock markets risk on as uncertainty Iran raised risk aversion. Technically, Dow and Nikkei futures fell, with the dollar following suit against the yen. It is recommended to keep an eye on stock market performance and capture the direction of dollar-yen trading.
The USDCAD is expected to test the $1.2940 support level, which has rebounded on fears of a shortage of crude oil amid instability in Iran. However, it must be noted that the adjustment of crude oil prices may limit the USDCAD downward range, if any impact on the adjustment, USDCAD would test 1.30 level.
Us crude futures
Instability in the Middle East has triggered a rise in the price of crude oil. The US President's formal sanctions against Iran will strain oil supplies and boost the price of crude oil, which is currently testing $64. Oil could test $66 to $67 if conditions continue to develop and risk aversion rises. However, we must be cautious and pay attention to the volatility of crude oil prices and the opportunity to adjust.
The price of gold rose to higher than $1, 600 cause of Iran attacks U.S. Airbase this morning. Investors must now be closely watched the Middle East tensions with the potential for a cascade of rising risks. If the stock market falls, gold and silver prices will rise. It is recommended to keep an eye on the situation, watch Dow and Nikkei futures and watch gold price movements. If stock indexes continue to rise, gold prices may adjust the scope of the expansion.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Middle East tensions sent the Dow down and global risk aversion up. But if tensions calm down for a while, and the market expects economic and corporate earnings growth. Dow futures are expected to rebound. At present, note 28130 and 27935 support, significant resistance 28775. If the situation in the Middle East, it may break through the relevant scope.
8450 / 8700resistance
7950 / 7800 support
the U.S. and Iran tensions, undermining investor appetite and increasing risk aversion. Dow future fell, bullish the bitcoin price. Keep watching the tensions and let cryptocurrency demand increasing and price up.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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