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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 20
Personal opinions today:
Bank of Japan and Bank of England interest rates remain unchanged, BoJ and BoE monetary policy, keep loose. The governor of the BoE said he was more concerned about the future economic outlook, predicting uncertainty over fiscal policy in the coming year. In particular, whether Brexit successfully at the end of January next year and the economic outlook, there is not optimistic sentiment, bearish for the pound. The U.S. economy remains strong, and the market is concerned about the release today of the Q3 real GDP final and the Michigan consumer confidence index final, the market has greater confidence, expected growth, capital flows into the dollar. Crude oil prices surged above $61 on optimism about the economy and demand.
In European trading today, focus on Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index, the Eurozone current account and the UK Q3 GDP. Among them, the U.K. Q3 GDP final value, impact on the pound and indirectly affect the Euro. In the evening U.S. market session, Canadian retail sales have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar. The U.S. final reading on Q3 real GDP and Michigan's consumer confidence index, respectively, all markets concern.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
09:30 China lending market quoted rates **
15:00 Germany Gfk consumer confidence index **
17:00 Eurozone current account **
17:30 U.K. Q3 GDP final **
21:30 Canada retail sales **
21:30 U.S. Q3 GDP final ***
21:30 U.S. real personal consumption expenditures ***
21:30 U.S. core PCE price index ***
23:00 U.S. Michigan consumer confidence index final ***
Europe's economic growth has been weaker than that of the U.S. The market forecast, the US Q3 real GDP and the Michigan consumer confidence index in December final value growth, short - term bearish for the Euro. However, it is worth noting that the Euro will be supported in a short time if the Eurozone current account and U.K. annualized Q3 GDP finally beat market expectations. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to 1.1335 and 1.1145 resistance. While the Euro is trending down, watch for the euro to fall. 1.1115 is an important support in the short term. If the U.S. economic data is strong, note the Euro at 1.1090 or 1.1080.
Pound to dollar
The UK economy has shown little growth, having slowed in the past quarters. The governor of the BoE said after the rate meeting that there were uncertainties over Brexit next year and the impact on the economic outlook. Comments affect investor confidence, bearish for the pound. Fundamentals and technical side in the bearish the pound. If the UK's Q3 GDP finally beats expectations, short-term support for the pound rose to 1.31 resistance. Technically, it is recommended to focus on 1.3065 or 1.3075 resistance in the short term. To the UK data performance, assess whether the sterling trend can break through 1.3075 resistance. If the previous attempt fails, the pound will continue its downward trend.
Australian dollar to dollar
Australia unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in November, beating market expectations and pushing the Australian dollar higher. Should global trade tensions improve further, the Australian dollar could gain. At present, the wait-and-see the US Q3 real GDP, it is recommended to pay attention to low 0.6845 support and 0.6905 resistance. Market estimates that the final reading on U.S. real GDP growth, it may be higher than the initial reading is also bullish on the Australian dollar, which is expected to show a 0.6905 drag on the data.
Dollar to yen
Dow futures rose, bullish the USDJPY higher. As the bank of Japan raised interest rates yesterday and monetary policy remained loose, the Japanese yen was upbeat in the short term. If the U.S. Q3 real GDP finally beats expectations, the dollar could move between 109.60 and 109.70 yen. Technically, it is recommended to keep an eye on U.S. Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225), which often dominate dollar-yen movements.
US - Mexico - Canada trade agreement implementation and oil prices rise, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. However, Canadian inflation data CPI lower than market expectations; the Canadian dollar fell. Tonight, Canada reports October retail sales. Observe the performance and evaluate the strength of the Canadian dollar. Also, it is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil prices, indirectly affecting the performance of the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
Crude oil prices rose on optimism about the global economy as the U.S. government suspended trade tariffs. Also, markets are waiting for the final reading of U.S. real GDP. If the performance beats market expectations, crude oil prices are estimated to test $61.35 resistance. However, before the weekend, crude oil price rise stopped, pay attention to the adjustment risk.
Bank of England monetary policy meeting, the BoE kept the loose policy, the future economic outlook worries. According to market research analysis, the process of Brexit faces difficulties and directly affects the European economy. Gold hovered between $1,470 and $1,480 as a hedge. Besides, markets remain focused on the release of US Q3 GDP final data. Gold has an opportunity to fall if data growth beats market expectations. Suggest a short run between $1,470 and $1,480, suggest a high correction of $1,480 or above, and gold is more likely to test $1,469 after adjusting for gains.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Investor sentiment remains active as investors wait for the final reading on U.S. real GDP in Q3. Dow futures could rise if the final reading of U.S. Q3 GDP beats market expectations. But with the weekend and fund managers preparing for the Christmas holiday, Dow futures could adjust at any time. Technically, if Dow futures try 28475 or 28520 resistance, still need to be careful to reverse the trend.
7350/ 7485 resistance
6875/ 6755 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. If the market risk on and the Dow future deeply fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the US7400 as the bitcoin price resistance. If not break the resistance, keep looking at US6755 support and US6400.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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