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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 16
Personal opinions today:
Dow futures rose, and global stocks followed as a slew of good news eased investor risk concerns. The dollar index reversed losses to regain 97 after the US reduced trade restrictions on China. As a result, the Euro rose against the dollar. USD rose against other major currencies, crude oil hovered around the $59 level, and gold and silver prices limited resistance.
Asian markets today focus on China November Retail Sales and Japan October index of tertiary industry activity. In the afternoon in European trading hours, investors focus on the German manufacturing PMI for December and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December. Then, UK manufacturing and services PMI for December. The above data, consensus growth, bullish European currency, such as the Euro and British pound. But around the opening of the U.S. market, the preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMI for December was one of the market's most famous spots. If it beats market expectations, it could lift the dollar. European currencies and gold prices are downward, but crude oil prices are expected rises, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. And the Canadian dollar, at 10:00 p.m. released in Canada November existing home sales, worth watching. Believe the price of crude oil, Canadian data growth, bullish the Canadian dollar.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
10:00 China Retail sales ***
12:30 Japan Tertiary industry activity **
16:30 German manufacturing PMI ***
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI **
17:30 UK manufacturing and services PMI ***
21:30 New York Fed manufacturing index *
22:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing and services PMI ***
22:00 Canada existing home sales **
23:00 U.S. housing market index (NAHB) *
24:00 BOE semi-annual financial stability report **
24:00 BOE financial policy minutes ***
The European central bank is easing policy and estimates that the Euro still has a chance to fall against the dollar next year as the economy downward. If European data show growth in the afternoon and pound rises against the dollar, the euro could benefit indirectly. The dollar is expected to rise and the euro to come down after the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMI data at 10:45 p.m. Regarding the EURUSD resistance of 1.1145. If it breaks through 1.1115 support, while we expect 1.1080 crucial support.
Pound to dollar
In the UK general election, the conservative party took more than half of the seats, bullish for the pound. Markets are watching today as the British prime minister unveils his new cabinet. Separately, the afternoon UK manufacturing and services PMI and the evening BOE semi-annual financial stability report and minutes are expected to limit gains in the pound. Note risk sentiment and market appetite for risk in the UK and recommend trading with caution. If the key resistance 1.3500 break fails, watch for a reversal.
Australian dollar to dollar
The U.S. government requested additional tariffs on China imports to suspend, once the interest on the Australian dollar. But markets are focused on tomorrow morning when the RBA releases its December monetary policy record. If before the announcement, it is recommended to pay attention to the Australian dollar downside risk, pay attention to 0.6910 resistance and 0.6865 support. Explore the direction of the Australian dollar after the RBA policy record is released. The current global economic climate is improving, the fundamentals of the Australian dollar. It is recommended to pay attention to low support, looking up.
Dollar to yen
The U.S. government has suspended the imposition of new tariffs on China imports. The result of the British election will help Brexit smooth. If combined with positive U.S. economic data and news, Dow futures rose again, potentially extending the dollar's gains against the yen. Technically, it is recommended to keep an eye on U.S. Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225) as the main reference points for dollar-yen movements. While there is still not much reason for the dollar to rise to the 110 level against the yen, the chances of a break above 109 are not significant. But if Dow futures and the Nikkei index fell, the dollar still has a chance to test 108.85 against the yen.
The Canadian dollar is expected to gain further gains as international trade sentiment improves, Canadian economic growth and crude oil prices rise. The U.S. dollar is likely to test below $1.31 against the Canadian dollar. Technically, pay attention to the 1.3200 and 1.3215 resistances.
US crude oil futures
The U.S. government has suspended plans to impose new tariffs on China imports, and the UK faces a clearer prospect of Brexit. The demand for crude oil supported a rise in crude prices through the end of the year. In the event of a crude oil price correction, $58 in the short term is the most critical support level.
After a year of market risk, slowly receded at the end of last week, believing that gold was losing ground. In the absence of other political risk events, gold prices are expected with a downside. The targets could be testing US1466 or US1464 support. The recent rise in the price of gold has an opportunity to correction as financial institutions prepare to settle accounts before the end of the year. Build reference resistance, $1476 and $1478.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The U.S. government's intention to delay another round of tariffs on China, boosting investment sentiment and value growth for U.S. companies, could push Dow futures higher. Technically, if Dow futures correction, watch for 28025 and 27930 support. 28290 is an essential short-term resistance level.
7450/ 7685 resistance
6850/ 6650 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Only If Dow future fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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