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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 4
Personal opinions today:
The Australian dollar rebounded after the RBA decision to keep interest rates unchanged improved bearish sentiment. Switzerland's consumer price index continued to show negative growth in November, and the Eurozone PPI was flat in October from the previous month. France government budget did not deteriorate in October, boosting the Euro and other European currencies. The mood has turned pessimistic amid growing pressure from Washington on international trade, fears that a US and China trade deal has not been finalized soon, and renewed concerns about raising tariffs on other countries. Generally, December is the month when financial institutions and funds begin to settle their investments. If the investment climate changes, the market moves sharply.
The performance of economic data is also a key gauge of market sentiment, with European trading today focusing on the final reading of Germany's November services PMI and the UK's November services PMI. Markets are now expected to be flat last month, hoping for a surprise that will further boost the Euro and pound. Another market focus tonight will be U.S. ADP payrolls for November. The data is related to non-farm payrolls and could extend to affect the dollar and even major currencies against the dollar as well as Dow futures, crude oil and gold price.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
16:55 Germany services PMI Final***
17:00 Eurozone services PMI Final **
17:30 UK Service sector PMI **
21:15 U.S. ADP payroll ***
22:45 U.S. Markit services PMI **
23:00 Bank of Canada interest rate decision ***
23:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI **
23:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories last week **
24:00 OPEC and non-OPEC JMMC meeting **
Yesterday the Eurozone PPI was flat in October and today's focus was on the final reading of the services PMI for Germany and the Eurozone in November. Affected by the decline of the dollar, the Euro is currently active. If the Eurozone economic data turns out to be similar to or lower than market expectations, the Euro is more likely to move lower against the dollar, failing to test the 1.1090 resistance after the European session, ahead of the overnight U.S. ADP payroll data for November. If U.S. ADP Numbers beat market expectations, the Euro could test 1.1055 support against the dollar and could extend to the downside.
British Pound to the dollar
Opinion polls in Britain predicted that the ruling conservative party would fail to win a majority of seats, shaking markets' doubts about Brexit next year. The main news was bearish for the pound. When the US President clashed with foreign leaders at the NATO summit, the dollar fell, and pound gained, breaking through the resistance of $1.2950 to a high of $1.3005. Late in the evening, US ADP employment figures for November were released. Market expectations for growth were bullish for the dollar and potentially bearish for the pound.
Australian dollar to dollar
The federal reserve held rates steady and offered no monetary easing or further rate cuts, improving the bearish trend for the Australian dollar. The AUD once broke through 0.6845 resistance. But the US and China trade talks have not produced any good news to spur concerns about the Australian dollar's gains against the U.S. dollar. Technically, AUD is expected to test 0.6865 or 0.6875 resistance. ADP employment is likely to increase in November in the United States today; the Australian dollar is expected to decline momentum, is expected to fall. The initial goal, 0.6800 or 0.6790 support.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Dow futures and Nikkei index futures fell, while the dollar was bearish against the Japanese yen. Technically, there is an estimated opportunity to test 108.45 for the first critical support. If Dow futures continue to fall and the dollar index adjusts, watch for target support at 108.45 or 108.35. But late in the evening, U.S. ADP payrolls for November were reported, and market expectations for growth could push the dollar higher against the Japanese yen. If Dow futures rebound, the dollar is expected to test 109.00 resistance against the Japanese yen.
The Bank of Canada will set interest rates tonight as markets focus on the central bank's monetary policy and economic outlook. Market watch, crude oil price trend weak, bearish Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD is testing the 1.3320 resistance. A rebound in crude oil prices above $57 could boost the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar could test support at 1.3265 or below as the bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged and its economic outlook upbeat.
US crude oil futures
OPEC and other crude oil producers will meet soon to discuss production cuts. The wait-and-see market atmosphere is robust, and crude oil prices are trading. Technically, it is expected to support the rise in crude oil prices. A break above $57.05 would see a 57.75 or 58.15 drag.
Today, the United States released in November ADP employment change, the market preliminary estimates of the number of people increased, supposed bearish gold prices. But yesterday, the U.S. President's comments on trade talks sent Dow futures and global stock markets lower and gold prices higher. If the U.S. jobs data beats market expectations, there is a chance to bullish Dow Jones futures, and gold prices have adjusted gains, target with $1,464 support. Technically, the critical resistance level is referred to at $1,484.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The U.S. manufacturing index unexpectedly fell, and Dow futures took the opportunity to make a deep correction amid concerns that international trade talks with China and Europe will not continue in December. Technically, Dow futures dipped to 27250 or 27165 support. Dow futures could get a boost tonight if there is a significant increase in ADP employment change. In the Short term, the resistance refers to 27680 and 27885.
7750/ 7885 resistance
7050/ 6850 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If Dow future remains to fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could rebound and probably over US7885.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
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