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ATFX Market Update - 2019.11.22


Personal opinions today:

The US government intends to impose import tariffs on EU car manufacturers, which would affect the economic prospects of Europe. Besides, uncertainty over the first phase of a trade agreement between US and China affected Dow futures fell Then the message that the China government invited US trade official visit to Beijing next month for the negotiations, the China government out of goodwill, the target is expected to reach an agreement. The dollar index and crude oil rose on the news, while gold and silver price fell.

European markets today focused on Germany final third-quarter GDP and European central bank President Christine laggard’s speech, which had a direct impact on the Euro. The performance of the UK manufacturing and services PMI in November could affect pound. US markets, the market watching the Markit manufacturing and services PMI for November and the Michigan consumer confidence index for November. Canadian dollar investors, worth watching Canada September retail sales.

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

15:00 German GDP for the third quarter-final ***
16:30 German manufacturing PMI **
16:30 ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks ***
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI **
17:30 UK manufacturing and services PMI **
21:30 Canadian September retail sales **
22:45 US Markit manufacturing and services PMI ***
23:00 US Nov Michigan consumer confidence index final ***

1.1085/1. 1095 resistance
1.1055/1.1045 support
The final German GDP for the third quarter were released this afternoon, followed by the ECB President Christine speech, which was even more critical. If comments continue to predict that European economic growth will remain low next year, monetary policy will maintain negative interest rates, which will limit the Euro’s rise. The Euro could fall against the dollar if further rate cuts are indicated. The Euro still has a chance to test 1.09 against the dollar. Current technical observation 1.1085 and 1.1095 resistance, below the first target 1.1055 or 1.1045 support.

British pound to dollar
1.2955/1.2965 resistance
1.2900/1.2890 support
In the UK trading hours today, the U.K. manufacturing and services PMI will be released. Separately, ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks. If Euro’s trend, indirectly bearish for pound. Technically, if the pound does not break through 1.2965, it could correct. If pound breakthrough 1.2890 support, there is an opportunity to explore 1.2865 support.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6815/0.6825 resistance
0.6785/0.6775 support
The US President is reportedly likely to impose additional tariffs on imports from the EU and China next month. There are uncertain factors in the international trade process, and the market is worried the US reopens the addition tariffs in December, the economic growth in the fourth quarter is slowing, more likely to affect next year's economic forecast, the monetary policy further cut interest rates, bearish for the Australian dollar. Technically, it is recommended to support the Australian dollar at levels of 0.6785 or 0.6775. It is waiting for the China trade ministry to invite U.S. trade officials to China for trade talks next month, which could bullish the Australian dollar.

Dollar/Japanese yen
108.80/108.90 resistance
108.40/108.30 support
Dow futures fell, sending the dollar down against the yen, amid uncertainty over trade talks between the United States and the world and nervousness about investment. But the Chinese government has reportedly invited U.S. trade officials to Beijing next month to discuss a trade deal. Expected to increase investment confidence, the dollar against the yen to rise. Technically, if Dow and Nikkei futures rebound, the dollar could test the next significant resistance against the yen. Refer to important resistances 109.25 and 109.40.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3295/1.3305 resistance
1.3255/1.3245 support
OPEC and the Russian government cut crude production, boosting prices. China and the United States look forward to progress in trade deal, the expected bullish Canadian dollar. Canada retail sales data released tonight, in the short term, the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar is expected to test 1.3355 or 1.3245 support.

United States crude oil futures
59.05/59.35 resistance
57.05/56.85 support
OPEC and the Russian government agreed to cut crude oil production from December, bullish crude oil prices. The international trade climate has improved China government has invited the US trade department to China next month. Crude oil prices rebounded, hitting $58 yesterday, pointing to significant headwinds. Current expectations if the U.S. government does not further say, crude oil prices limited room to rise, watch out for adjustments. Technical, pay attention to the $60 resistance, if crude oil prices hit the $59 level, watch out for a reversal!

1471/1473 resistance
1460/1458 support
The Fed monetary policy has no intention of cutting interest rates, and international trade is expected to improve after China's trade ministry invited the United States to China for consultations. Short - term market sentiment is expected to be good, bearish gold. Technically, Dow futures fell, but the dollar index rebounded, bearish gold broke the support. Short-term watch $1458 support, next-level support, $1452 and $1448.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27955/28015 resistance
27720/27655 support
Chinese trade ministry invited the United States trade officials visited China, and it is expected to sign a trade agreement in December, investment is expected to improve sentiment and outlook. Dow futures could rebound if the U.S. trade officials agree to visit China, which could ease investor concerns. Technically, the short-term focus Dow futures 27655 support.

7885/ 8180 resistance
7750/ 7550 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885 support., next target to US7550. But Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could rebounds, test US8180 resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

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