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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 4
Personal opinions today:
In Asian trading today, the main focus of the German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI final data in October, the market has been expected to be flat. If the data is in line with expectations, the Euro and British pound are likely to fall. In U.S. trading today, the market focused on U.S. September factory orders and a speech by the ECB president, Christine Lagarde. The market is waiting to see whether U.S. factory orders in September. Later, watch what the ECB president speech. Whether she will consider stepping up loose monetary policy to push down the Euro and British pound and the Swiss franc. If U.S. factory orders in September turn out to be better than expected, gold could fall and crude oil could rise.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
Winter time begins in the United States
14:45 Swiss consumer confidence index **
16:55 German manufacturing PMI final ***
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI final **
17:30 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index *
23:00 U.S. factory orders **
The next day 02:30 ECB President Christine lagarde speech
The Euro had risen after U.S. non-farm payrolls were below predicted. The Euro could see resistance at 1.1175 and 1.1185 if German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI better-than-expected, bullish Euro. Then, tomorrow morning, focus on a speech by the European CB president, Christine. If dovish speech, it could push the Euro lower.
British pound to dollar
The British pound rose against the dollar after the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls, but failed to challenge the most important resistance level, 1.3005. As markets digested the data, the focus turned to concerns about Brexit and UK general election, which in turn led to a correction in pound gains. U.S. factory orders are expected to fall in September from a month earlier, and pound is expected to test resistance against the dollar again ahead of the release. But then it is possible to test the support level again.
Australian dollar to U.S. dollar
Weak U.S. non-farm employment data and an improvement in the trade war between China and the U.S. could see headwinds against the aussie dollar. If any further good news in the future, such easing of trade tariffs between China and the United States, we suggest to be bullish on the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.
Dow futures rebounded, the Nikkei rose and USDJPY followed. If U.S. factory orders in September would not as weak as expected today, it could lead to gains in Dow and Nikkei futures, while the USDJPY could test 108.60 or 108.70 resistance.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
Crude oil prices stronger, bullish Canadian dollar. But dovish comments from the Bank of Canada kept the currency in lower. If crude oil prices are estimated to rise, would bullish Canadian dollar, USDCAD is likely to test support. Technically, watch the USDCAD for 1.3125 or 1.3115 support.
United States crude oil futures
Crude oil prices fell to within the $53 range before rebounding, and the market digested weak U.S. economic and job data, creating an opportunity for U.S. crude oil futures rebounded. At the moment, improving trade relations between China and the United States and the extension of OPEC production cuts could bullish U.S. crude futures prices.
U.S. non-farm payrolls were weak and gold prices adjusted after released. But gold rose on expectations that U.S. factory orders fell in September today. If the data meets or beats expectations, gold could test $1,504 support. US and China trade tensions improved, with the first phase of a trade deal expected to be signed next week. Gold will see a correction, more likely to break the $1500 support level.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. non-farm payrolls data for October beat market expectations. Trade tensions between China and the United States have improved, and the first phase of a trade deal is expected to be signed next week. Easing expectations for a weak U.S. economy lifted investment sentiment, with Dow futures broke the 27220 resistance. Now keep an eye on 27230 and 27145 support. Testing Dow future, 27640 resistance.
9380/ 9950 resistance
8950 / 8750 support
The FOMC mentions the Fed rate may not further cut further, it will bearish for crypto currencies. The bitcoin price limited gain after the FOMC meeting. US and China trade deal would signed next week, global stock market rebound. Technically, it could bearish Bitcoin price. If break US8750 support, then look at US7885 support.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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