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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 June 28
Personal opinions today:
Markets are watching the Japan G20 summit. The summit is not the focus of the market. The China and US leader meeting is the focus of the market. Ahead of the summit, U.S. and Chinese leaders had said they would meet Saturday. The market expects to ease relations, arrange the next round of China and US trade consultation and enhance the investment sentiment in the market.
Yesterday, the German June CPI monthly rate preliminary value, over expectations. Now the forecast the eurozone June CPI monthly rate rise. But before the Eurozone CPI results for June, keep an eye on French and Spanish data, which, if good, could add to the euro. In addition, the first quarter of UK GDP and current account, the market to see whether UK will face a hard brexit risk, economic growth slowed. Data forecasts are bearish for the British pound.
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose as the labor market slowed and spending power likely fell. There are opportunities to influence future prices. The core PCE price index for may was released today. Is testing the U.S. tariffs on China. In addition, the Chicago PMl and Michigan consumer confidence index for June. These economic data are noteworthy and affect the performance of the dollar.
[Important financial data and events]
14:45 France CPI in June
15:00 Switzerland's KOF economic leading for June
16:30 UK GDP and current account for the first quarter
17:00 Eurozone CPI annual rate for June
20:30 Canada GDP in April
20:30 US core PCE price index in May
20:30 US personal expenditure in May
21:45 US Chicago PMI for June
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index for June
The G20 summit will be held in Japan from 28th to 29th
Yesterday, Germany released the monthly CPI data for June showing an increase. Euro bullish ahead of forecasts that euro zone June CPI also rose today. Later, the market estimated that the U.S. economy was flat today, with no growth. The data do not reflect inflation and there are opportunities to gain the euro. Technically, the key short-term support for the euro is expected at 1.1345. On the contrary, EURUSD fell, you can note from June 18 high and low range of the golden ratio adjustment ratio. 38.2% was adjusted to 1.1325 support level. 50% is adjusted to 1.1295.
UK will face the huge risk of a hard brexit without a deal, and the British pound may fall sharply in the future. Today, the market focus on the first-quarter GDP and current account data. Technically, British pound is weak. GBPUSD technical resistance recommendations 1.2700 and 1.2720 in the short term. If the GBP going to adjustment, the golden ratio is extended to 1.2610 and 1.2580. The euro has already tested 0.8970 against the British pound if the fall in the British pound widens. Should the British pound fall further, the euro could test 0.9000 against British pound. First we focus on Eurozone and UK economic data, with the euro likely to test 0.8920 or 0.8885 support against British pound if it falls significantly.
The market is watching the G20 summit and, more importantly, the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States to decide whether to formally reopen the trade talks in a short time. Technically, the Australian dollar a high of 0.7020 against the U.S. dollar in early June. In case of breakthrough, see upper resistance of 0.7050 and 0.7070. Normally, the NZDUSD follows the AUDUSD. Take note when investing in the NZ dollar. During this weekend we pay attention to the meeting between China and US leader meeting. Any good news and bad news also affect the trend of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.
Japan unemployment rate was unchanged in May and CPl rose slightly in June. In addition, the bank of Japan released a summary of its monetary policy meeting, showing that the bank of Japan has no intention to modify monetary policy, which has benefited the yen. The market is looking forward to the G20 summit, the China and leader meeting and the chance to restart the trade talks in the near future, which will further boost the stock market. Technically, the dollar is expected to follow the Dow and Nikkei .
U.S. crude oil prices due to a sharp reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories, trade talks between China and US are expected to resume. Crude oil is trading near $60, bullish Canadian dollars. At present, the market is waiting to see whether the China and US leaders meeting can improve bilateral relations, promote the economy and reduce the imposition of additional tariffs after the meeting, which will have an important impact on the Canadian dollar and the price of crude oil. If the trade talks go well, further boosting the price of crude oil could boost Canadian economy, bullish the Canadian dollar. Conversely, if trade talks stall and crude oil prices fall, it could bearish the Canadian dollar.
Us crude oil futures USOIL
US API crude oil stocks have been sharply reduced, China and US trade talks are expected to start, and crude oil futures are testing the $59 level. That, combined with the Fed's plan to consider a rate cut in the second half of the year, could boost oil prices. Technically, $59.70 was a one-month high. If there is no good news or negative news from the US-China trade talks, crude oil futures could fall with an initial target of $58.20 or $57.35.
The Fed rate cut was not as high as expected by the market, to cool the rising trend of gold prices at the same time, the price of gold adjusted significantly. But the market fears that the U.S. and China leaders could resume talks at the weekend raised risk aversion and boosted gold prices. Current, technical reference level, 1421 and 1425 resistance, 1407 and 1403 support.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The market is watching the China-US trade consultations. Good news could lift the investment climate. Technically, the Dow is currently focused on 26652 and 26759 resistance. If the trade talks fail to make progress, or fail, the Dow could break through 26395, with a further move to 26000.
13000 / 13350 resistance
10350 / 10050 support
The market expected Fed fund rate will cut in the second half year, used to bullish the bitcoin. Bitcoin to be safe heaven instrumental. Now, China and U.S. trade talk and G20 leader summit coming soon. The bitcoin following the gold price go down that we mention this week. The market wait and see China and U.S. trade talk and follow the market sentiment.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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