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ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.20


Personal opinions today:

The federal reserve released the interest rate decision and policy statement after the end of the FOMC meeting. This time, the federal reserve evaluated the market and economic conditions in accordance with the established procedures and kept the interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations. But at the Fed's press conference, the chairman revealed that would cut interest rates coms economy half of this year, with the market estimating cut 0.5 per cent in July and September. The dollar fell as markets assessed the direction of federal reserve interest rates. Interest rate cut expectations rose, bullish stocks, crude oil prices and gold prices. Expecting that, keeps the trend continues in Asian and European markets today.

In European markets will look to the UK retail sales rate in May and the BOE interest rate decision and minutes. In addition, U.S. jobless claims for the week ended June 15, U.S. current account data for the first quarter, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for June and the conference board's leading index for may all affected the dollar in short-term direction.

[Important financial data and events]
10:35 Reserve bank of Australian chairman Lowell speech
11:00 Bank of Japan announces interest rates decision
14:00 Swiss trade account for May
14:30 Bank of Japan governor holds a press conference
16:30 UK retail sales rate for May
19:00 Bank of England interest rate decision and minutes
20:30 US initial jobless claims
20:30 U.S. current account
20:30 US Philadelphia manufacturing index for June
Next day 04:00 Bank of England governor Carney speaks

Today suggestion:

1.1275/1.1290 resistance
1.1240/1.1225 support
After the Fed monetary policy statement, the dollar fell, finally boosting the euro. Technically, the euro broke through the first resistance of 1.1240, and the next step is to wait and see 1.1275 and 1.1290. Significant resistance level 1.1315. Reference support levels 1.1240 and 1.1225 should the euro adjust.

1.2690/1.2720 resistance
1.2645/1.2620 support
The dollar fell amid rising expectations of a fed rate cut in the second half of the year. The price of crude oil has been boosted by the reopening of trade talks between China and the us. Today, the Bank of England interest rate decision and minutes, expected monetary policy unchanged, but may hint at future monetary direction. If the BOE revealed the rate cut, bearish GBP. The technical estimates are 1.2690 and 1.2720 as short-term resistance. Important resistance 1.2755, careful adjustment from higher resistance. The hour chart of EURGBP was adjusted to 0.8875 head and shoulder’s neck line, which is expected to rise against GBP, testing level of 0.8920 or above. If the breakthrough 0.8830 important support, trend may fall further.

0.6925/0.6945 resistance
0.6875/0.6855 support
The planned reopening of trade talks has boosted the Australian dollar. The federal reserve's monetary policy suggests interest rate cuts in the second half year, bullish AUD. Technically, AUDUSD rebound, hit 0.6900 resistance level. With the federal reserve planning to cut interest rates, the Australian dollar is likely to break through resistance at 0.6900 to see resistance at 0.6945 or try resistance at 0.6975. Technical support on 0.6875 and 0.6855. The AUDUSD generally indirectly lead the trend of the New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar, is worth mutual attention.

108.20/108.40 resistance
107.35/107.20 support
China-US trade talks are scheduled to reopen, while the federal reserve plans to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. The bank of Japan announced monetary policy and the governor of the bank of Japan press conference today . The dollar is expected to rebound against the yen if the bank of Japan's monetary policy remains unchanged. The dollar was expected to trade above 108.20 yen and 108.40 yen in the first support zone, following gains in the Dow and Nikkei. Short term fluctuations, expected reference 107.35 and 107.20 support. Significant support 106.85.

1.3235/1.3220 support
1.3345/1.3360 resistance
U.S. crude oil prices rebounded, hitting $55. Yesterday, Canada released CPI, higher than market expectations, the Canadian dollar rose. The Fed signaled a rate cut in the second half, the Canadian dollar gains. Canada retail sales data for April release tomorrow, before the crude oil prices breaks US55 resistance, bearish on the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD 1.3235 is the lowest in early June, which can be judged as an important support level.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
54.85/55.10 resistance
53.85/53.55 support
The US President says trade talks with China will resume on the sidelines of the g20 summit, and the federal reserve plans to consider cutting interest rates in the second half of the year to boost oil prices. However, it is worth noting that due to seasonal demand, the trade war between China and the United States has not ended, which may continue to reduce the demand for crude oil. We believe that futures prices are likely to fall and limit the rise. Technically, you can refer to 55.10 significant resistance, looking down at levels 53 and 52 support. Significant support at the $50 level.

1388/1395 resistance
1365/1355 support
The market expects the federal reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of the year, boosting gold prices. The expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates by 0.5% in the second half year, boosting gold prices. Earlier in Asia, speculative buying came in, gold price trading at $1,393.80. But investors were concerned that the planned reopening the trade talks between the United States and China boosted stocks and limited the short-term rise in gold prices. If the price of gold fails to rise to reference resistance of 1388 and 1395 after London trading hours, it would be the correction of gold price.Reference support of $1365 and $1355. Technically, gold prices above $1340 support level, trend may continue to fall, please note.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26600/26700 resistance
26390/26250 support
The Dow future closed little higher after the FOMC policy meeting. The Fed did not cut interest rates at this meeting, limited boost to stocks. Technically, the Dow broke through 26520, which is expected to test the 26700 resistance. The market needs any positive news about the U.S. and China trade talks and deal, bullish the Dow break through the 26,700 barrier. If not, look down at the support 26390 and 26250 or lower.

9350 / 9550 resistance
9020 / 8850 support
The market expected Fed fund rate will cut in the second half year, bullish the bitcoin. The bitcoin uptrend recently breaks US9000 and test US9350 or US9550. However, we keep watching the China and U.S. trade talk end of this month at G20 leader summit. The US President said reopening of the US-China trade talks, it would bearish the price of Bitcoin.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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