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ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.18


Personal opinions today:
Yesterday, there were no essential data and news in the market, and the US dollar index continued to range, from 97.30 to 97.55. Dollar index by hour chart, the pattern shows three top. But today, the Eurozone release trade account for April, CPI for May, and the ZEW economic sentiment index for the Eurozone and Germany for June. These data will affect EUR performance. In the evening, the ECB President, Mario Draghi speech. The Eurozone data and Draghi remarks could affect the EUR and other European currencies. At the moment, markets are pricing in a contraction in Eurozone inflation and weaker economic sentiment from a month ago, which could weigh against the EUR and limit its gains.
The federal reserve monetary price meeting begins its first day tomorrow, and markets expect the Fed to hold its interest rate and monetary policy statements. The market is expected to cut rates when the Fed meeting in July. For now, the market is watching Fed chairman Powell hold a news conference, looking for the direction of the Fed's monetary policy. If the Fed says it plans to cut rates more than once in the third and fourth quarters of this year, it could affect investor confidence in dollar assets and the dollar in the second half of the year.
The short-term dollar index is expected to trade in a tight range between 97.30 and 97.55 resistance. Any stronger or weaker data in Eurozone data could have an impact on the US dollar.

[Important financial data and events]
09:30 RBA releases minutes
17:00 Eurozone trade accounts for April
17:00 Eurozone CPI monthly and annual final for May
17:00 Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for June
17:00 Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for June
20:30 U.S. building permits in May
20:30 U.S. housing starts in May
22:00 Bank of England governor Carney speech
22:00 ECB President Mario Draghi speech
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks

Today suggestion:
1.1245/1.1260 resistance
1.1190/1.1175 support
Eurozone economic data are expected to be weak, Eurozone inflation data expected to be weak. Eurozone CPI is likely to fall to 0.2 percent in May from the previous month, which is a notable downside risk ahead of the data release. Technically, the EURUSD hour chart to maintain a downward trend. Investors were watching the European group meeting, where European central bank President Mario Draghi speech in hopes of another round of good news to boost the euro. Looking ahead to the euro in the near term, the first resistance is 1.1245, with support at 1.1190.

1.2560/1.2585 resistance
1.2485/1.2460 support
The candidate of Britain's governing conservative party, former London mayor Boris Johnson, who advocates a hard Brexit without a deal, has surged ahead of his rivals. The markets expect Britain to face a hard Brexit without an agreement on October 31st. On the negative side, if there is no good news to boost the pound, the expected trend will continue to be weak, and out of the pace of the euro, some fell. Currently, the GBPUSD broke 1.2558 pre-support level and will try the next level target of 1.2460. The EURGBP after adjustment, beak 0.8930 resistance. The EURGBP expect to test the 0.90 level.

0.6880/0.6900 resistance
0.6845/0.6825 support
Minutes from the reserve bank of Australia's June monetary policy meeting showed the central bank was still considering another rate cut as a stimulus target. The Australian dollar has a chance to fall against the US dollar as interest rate cuts are expected to continue before the Australian economy rebounds. Technically, focus on AUDUSD break through 0.6900 support level, looking down 0.6845 and 0.6825 support. Moreover, the Fed's monetary policy meeting on Thursday cannot be ignored. About US monetary policy can change the AUDUSD trend, temporarily estimated AUDUSD around 0.6800 as a preliminary significant support level.

108.55/108.70 resistance
108.35/108.20 support
Fed rate cut expectations are rising, decisive of the Dow performance. The dollar followed the Dow and Nikkei. If the trade war between China and the U.S. continues, the Dow and Nikkei index is weak, limiting gains in related stock markets. The USDJPY is expected to limit resistance at 108.70, after which 108.35 and 108.20 support levels may be tested. Changes in market information suggest keeping an eye on how the Dow and Nikkei affect the dollar-yen trend.

1.3380/1.3360 support
1.3430/1.3445 resistance
U.S. crude oil prices, indirect bearish Canadian dollar. If crude oil prices continue to fall, it will further bearish the Canadian dollar. Canada manufacturing orders and inventories for April were released in today, followed by inflation data for Canada tomorrow. The Canadian dollar remains bearish in two days of expected weak Canadian data. Currently reference support levels 1.3380 and 1.3360, resistance 1.3430 and 1.3445. Should the data turn out to be in line with market expectations, it could be worth bullish Canadian dollars. If crude oil prices rebound would be bullish the Canadian dollars.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
52.45/53.05 resistance
51.65/51.05 support
US API crude oil stocks increased last week, believe continue to be affected by the trade war between China and the US. The latest crude oil stocks release tomorrow. Expected increasing in crude stocks from last week would be bearish for oil prices. Otherwise, the price of crude oil will be higher. It is worth noting that seasonal demand factors may affect the decrease of crude oil demand, which may lead to the increase of crude oil stocks and limit the prices upward further. Technically, we can refer to 53.05 short-term significant resistance, 51.65 and 51.05 support and 50.70 considerable resistance.

1346/1348 resistance
1336/1334 support
Fed officials, who have expressed concern about slowing global growth, are expected to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, boosting gold prices. With the Fed meeting starting tomorrow and expectations that the Fed may match the President's views for a cut-rate, gold has consolidated above $1330 and is testing resistance at $1346 and $1348, or would break through $1350. Short-term support at $1336 and $1334. Technically, gold prices above $1329 support level, the trend may reverse downward, please note.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26250/26320 resistance
25960/25885 support
Ahead of the Fed meeting, the investment climate remained on the sidelines, with the U.S. Dow in a narrow range, with technical resistances 26250 and 26320. Supports 25960 and 25885. Key support 25620. No significant U.S. data is expected today, with the Dow remaining in a narrow range. But it must pay attention to President Trump, including views on monetary policy and China and US trade talks or deal. With positive deal, Dow could see resistance. If not, look down the support.

9510 / 9759 resistance
8720 / 8520 support
Trade tension, US economic data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, bullish the bitcoin. The bitcoin uptrend recently breaks US9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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