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ATFX Market Update - 2019.05.28


Personal opinions today:
US President Trump was in Japan for talks on a trade deal. After the meeting he said they had reached an agreement, but gave no details. Later, US President Trump said publicly that The US trade department was not ready for trade talks with China. A week later, Trump changed his attitude after the visit Japan, China and US trade talks uncertainty, increasing market risks and affecting investment sentiment.
Britain prime minister has resigned, waiting the formal a new leader. Markets expect the next British prime minister as having a chance to change on Brexit. But more than half of those who want to run for prime minister are in favour of a hard brexit. Thus it can be seen that the UK finally moves towards a no-deal Brexit, and the GBP weakens. In addition, various risks are heating up, expected that the downside risks to the stock market, money flows into gold and yen, and crude oil price rise may be limited to $60 to $61 resistance. Commodity currencies maybe fall.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
14:00 German Gfk consumer confidence index (June)
14:00 Swiss trade account (April)
17:00 Eurozone sentiment index and consumer confidence index (May)
22:00 US consumer confidence index (May)
22:30 the Dallas Fed business activity index (May)

Today suggestion :
1.1175/1.1155 support
1.1220/1.1240 resistance
With the European elections under way and conservatives still holding a majority in parliament, the euro's stability was assured. Technical reference resistance continues at 1.1220 and 1.1240, with support at 1.1175 and 1.1155. If the market gives an early indication of a revised forecast for U.S. first-quarter real GDP on Thursday, a further drop in the dollar could be positive for the euro. Keep an eye out for German and eurozone consumer confidence data and euro zone economic and industrial sentiment data for May. The euro is expected to return above the 1.1200 level in the near term, looking at the 1.1240 target.

1.2715/1.2740 resistance
1.2635/1.2605 support
The British prime minister announced resignation and remained in office until June 7 to await his successor. But the next prime minister, who is likely to back a hard brexit, has a chance to hit sterling hard. As the risk of a hard Brexit increasingly, some financial institutions are suggesting the pound could fall as low as 1.2 or even try 1.1. Technically, the GBPUSD reference resistance level of 1.2740. Trend continues to go down, try below 1.2635 or 1.2605 support.

0.6930/0.6945 resistance
0.6900/0.6880 support
The trade war between China and the United States is still not over, the U.S. President once again expressed negative comments, the rise of the Australian dollar was blocked, but temporarily maintained the level of 0.69. Technically, there are still downside risks to the aussie trend. If the resumption of China-US trade talks is confirmed in the short term, there will be reasons to support the continued rise of the Australian dollar. Almost, the New Zealand dollar has the same reason to wait for a rebound. However, at present, there is no progress in the overall China and US trade talks. Please pay attention to the downside risks of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, and the AUDUSD may test the support of 0.6880.

109.70/109.90 resistance
109.35/109.15 support
Yesterday, the United States and the United States holiday, the global stock market reflect little, the dollar and the yen in a tight range. At present, the speech of the US President Trump, affected investment sentiment, the Dow and Nikkei fluctuate repeatedly and the dollar fluctuates against the yen. Invest in the dollar against the yen, the recommended reference to the Dow and Nikkei index, looking for a dollar-yen trend roadmap.

1.3470/1.3485 resistance
1.3425/1.3405 support
Crude oil prices rebounded to near $59, with the Canadian dollar following. The bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady when the monetary decision meeting tomorrow. Technical focus , the dollar resistance against the Canadian dollar at $1.3485, support at $1.3405.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
58.40/57.85 support
59.05/59.75 resistance
Crude oil prices fell last week as U.S. crude inventories for API and ElA rose. The market is waiting to see tomorrow, release of the latest crude inventories. Technically, refer to initial resistance levels of $59.05 and $59.75, and support levels below $58.40 and $57.85. Crude oil prices will fall if U.S. API and ElA crude inventories increase, respectively. The more inventories rise, the more oil prices fall. And vice versa!

1282/1280 support
1290/1292 resistance
The US economy is expected to slow and the Fed is expected to need to cut interest rates. Trade talks between China and the United States has not back to table, instability in the Middle East has seen the Dow Jones industrial average fall and Britain face increased risks of a hard Brexit. When stock markets reopened after the holidays in U.K. and US, markets had a chance to add up, money flow into gold and pushing up its price. Technically, 1282 and 1280 are supported. Upward target resistance 1290 and 1292.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25705/25855 resistance
25415/25355 support
Yesterday, the U.S. holiday, no U.S. data, Dow futures closed early, the Dow little volatility. Investors continue to pay attention to information related to China and US economy and trade, especially comments from both sides, and grasp the trend of Dow futures. Still, the success of the US-Japan trade talks is expected to be a positive for stocks when the U.S. President visits Japan. But the most crucial trade talks between China and the United States remain stalled, with limited room for stocks to rise. Current recommendations focus on resistance at 25705 and 25855. Lower support targets at 25415 and 25355.

8950 / 9250 resistance
8550 / 8300 support
Trade tension, US data shown slow down. Expected Fed will not intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price breakthrough $8000 and probably reach to $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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