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ATFX Market Update - 2019.05.21


Personal opinions today

There are no major data releases on Asian and European markets today, but a statement from the ECB's vice President speech tomorrow. Positive comments could boost the euro. In addition, during the U.S. trading session, existing home sales in the United States were also expected to rise in April, according to data on April U.S. home sales released last week. Also, focus on Eurozone consumer sentiment.

Yesterday, Fed chairman Powell said recent U.S. economic data have been good and monetary policy could ease if the economy contracts to maintain stability, suggesting fed policy makers are still considering a rate cut because of uncertainty about the U.S. economy. The dollar index fell after the comments, while the euro and sterling rose. Gold prices recovered from their lows, while crude oil prices also rose slightly.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
09:30 AU monetary policy minutes published by rba
16:30 UK the governor of the bank of England and other officials remarks
22:00 US the total number of existing home sales in April
22:00 Eurozone consumer sentiment index
Next day 02:30 New York crude futures close for June
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude stocks for the week ended May 17

Today's suggestion:

1.1160/1.1145 support
1.1205/1.1220 resistance
Markets watch tomorrow's speech by European central bank President Mario draghi if the euro zone's may consumer confidence index changes today. And positive comments from ECB officials could lead to euro gains. Technically, from the euro against the dollar chart found that the euro broke through the short-term moving average, the trend is expected to be upward. The current reference resistance is 1.1205 and 1.1220. Using a moving average reference, support bits 1.1160 and 1.1145.

1.2705/1.2670 support
1.2750/1.2770 resistance
Markets believe the UK could delay its decision on a Brexit deal again. The GBPUSD continued to fall as uncertainty about the political and economic outlook weighed on investor confidence. The dollar index was only slightly lower, with the GBPUSD up from a low of $1.2715. Technically, 1.2865 as an important reference resistance, if the price can not break through, the trend continues to decline. At present, the trend is likely to test the next 1.2705 and 1.2670 support. Market watching: the governor of the bank of England and other officials speak today, the UK inflation data CPl will be released tomorrow, It will believe the results will affect the trend of the GBPUSD.

0.6940/0.6965 resistance
0.6885/0.6865 support
The Australian dollar posted its biggest one-day gain since January after the surprise election yesterday. The Australian dollar could under pressure by the prospect of a interest rate cut from the Reserve bank of Australia. Minutes of the RBA's may meeting were released today to watch the RBA's comments on monetary policy. Technically, the overall trend of the Australian dollar still has downside risks. If AUDUSD remain above 0.6895, they will try 0.6940 and 0.6965 respectively. The important support bits below are 0.6885 and 0.6865. The trend of the New Zealand dollar is similar to that of the Australian dollar, which can also provide reference for the trend of the New Zealand dollar.

110.35/110.50 resistance
109.80/109.65 support
The trade tensions between China and the United States, the comments of representatives of the two countries led to the decline of investment sentiment. The Dow and Nikkei index in a narrow range, and the dollar also fluctuated in a narrow range against the yen. If the trade tensions between China and the United States improves, and resume trade talks, believing that it can change the investment sentiment, lead to a rise in the stock market and boost the dollar against the yen. Conversely, the dollar against the yen exchange rate, is still likely to decline. The dollar is currently estimated to be hovering around 110 yen, the rise will be limited. Technically, the dollar rallied against the yen, focusing on resistance at 110.35 and 110.50. Break through 109.80 support, the trend may extended to 109.40.

1.3475/1.3505 resistance
1.3425/1.3400 support
Focus on U.S. API crude inventories for the week ended May 17. Expected crude oil price fluctuations, indirect impact on the performance of the Canadian dollar. Technical trends, the USDCAD continued to fluctuate between $1.3400 and $1.3500 range. Canada reports march retail sales tomorrow, and the market is watching.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
62.55/61.85 support
63.85/64.35 resistance
Focus on U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ended May 17, the results will affect crude oil price fluctuations. If crude oil inventories than last week, combined with tensions in the Middle East, Opec with the news of production cuts, bullish crude prices, and vice versa. Technically, see initial support at $62.55 and resistance at $63.85 and 64.35.

1275/1272 support
1282/1285 resistance
Trade tensions between China and the United States offer an opportunity to gold price rally. It's just that U.S. economic data is good and gold prices are downward. Suggestions must pay attention to the trade talks related news or the U.S. Dow performance. If positive news, led the stock market rebound, gold prices are expected to test support. Gold, on the other hand, could test $1,290.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25855/25940 resistance
25515/25425 support
Better U.S. economic data supported the Dow bullish. But trade tensions between China and the United States have yet to materialize a timetable for the resumption of trade talks, with the Dow limited to gains with downside risks. Current recommendations focus on resistance at 25855 and 25940. If fails, the lower targets as 25515 and 25425.

8150 / 8550 resistance
7250 / 6800 support
China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow overall decline, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price back and breakthrough $7500, next target could $8000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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