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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 April 23
Personal opinions today
Global investment markets are trading regularly after the Easter holiday. But there was no economic data out of Europe today, and the principal U.S. figure was only the total number of new home sales in March. Crude trading focuses on U.S. API crude inventories.
Other important highlights of the week; Including tomorrow morning Australian consumer confidence index and CPl, the bank of Canada interest rate decision. On Thursday, the bank of Japan decided on interest rates, U.S. jobless claims and durable goods orders. Friday's preliminary reading of U.S. first-quarter real GDP, real personal consumption expenditures and the first-quarter core PCE price index. Friday's U.S. data is expected to bring market attention, currency, gold and stock market volatility, and influence the outlook for new U.S. non-farm jobs next week. Please stay tuned.
[Important data and events to watch]
20:30 Canadian wholesale sales in February
21:00 US FHFA housing price index in February
22:00 The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April
22:00 US new home sales in March
the next day 04:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks
The euro seems stronger after the holidays. EURUSD consolidating at $1.1235 and $1.220 but still subject to resistance at $1.1320. If EURUSD upward and break through the reference resistance level of 1.1270 and 1.1290, it is expected to further test 1.1320. The market is waiting for the eurozone IFO business climate index for April, and U.S. data released this week, such US GDP in the first quarter which affected the euro is downward.
The market can not find any stand out good data in UK. Instead, US data showed growth, money flowed into the dollar and the GBP came downward. Technically, the GBP has been on a downward trend, with the important reference resistance and support levels moving down to 1.3005 and 1.3025 and 1.2965 and 1.2940 support respectively. If the GBP does not rebound above 1.3035 resistance, the expected trend will remain on the downside, depending on Friday's U.S. first-quarter GDP report.
Australian consumer confidence index and CPl will announce tomorrow. However, the Australian dollar downward on the strength of the U.S. dollar ahead of the release of a stronger U.S. data, which is expected to report a stronger U.S. GDP on this Friday. Technically, the AUDUSD is expected to hold support at 0.7095 with reference resistance at 0.7145 or 0.7160.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell after the holiday break as investors watched major companies report first-quarter results. The United States and Japan also follow the trend downward. The technical resistance level moved down to 112.00 and 112.15, and the reference support level for the daily trial was 111.80. Next is 111.50 support. Expectations remain on a downward trend, with the U.S. first-quarter GDP report on Friday.
U.S. crude oil futures rose and were indirectly bullish on the Canadian dollar, but the currency failed to gain on expectations for U.S. first-quarter GDP, a strong U.S. dollar. On Thursday, bank of Canada interest rate decision. Technically, the USDCAD reference support are 1.3315 and 1.3295. Reference resistance 1.3375 and 1.3395.
U.S. crude futures USOIL
The United States has pressured countries to impose sanctions on Iran to limit its oil exports and stop buying Iranian crude, which would reduce supplies and boost prices. Technically, crude oil broke through a key reference resistance that had been expected at $65.25, up from $66. Note tomorrow morning, U.S. crude inventories report, if the decline in crude inventories is larger than last week, there is an opportunity to boost crude prices.
Last week the federal reserve released March beige book, the report showed moderate growth in the U.S. economy, is expected in the next few months, the economy, negative for gold prices. In addition, the report reflects the possibility of U.S. GDP growth, which is negative for gold prices as well. Technically, gold is down $1,270 or $1,267 in correction wave support. If gold prices rebound, refer to the initial resistance target of 1282 or 1285.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The Easter holiday, the impact of the investment climate, the Dow performance limit. In addition, the market is looking for the corporate earnings in Dow indexes, expected to wait and see corporate earnings reports before action. Technically, refer to 26315 or 26125 support, 26500 and 26625 resistance.
5050 / 5200 resistance
4750 / 4650 support
The market is waiting for the US GDP data release on Friday, the bitcoin price keeps a bit lower to waiting for the data results. Technically the bitcoin price is expected below US5200; it could be test 4750 or 4650 support.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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