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Short-term trading idea: FX EUR/AUD – bear speculation: exit from the triangle formation and a break of the trend line


Trading opportunities for currency pair: the price has left the triangle formation downwards. The trend line was broken with this departure. The target for the downward movement is 1.3774. The time the target regions will be reached is from 11th to 28th November of this year. As our entry point we need to look from a bounce on the daily. A close of the daily candle above 1.4500 means we should hold off selling. Risk for the trade: 1-2% of deposit.


Due to the euro weakening, a week’s pinbar formed and the pinbar came off nicely in this cross.

Weekly graph

In accordance with the pinbar, the price dropped to the TR1 trend line and S1 support which was holding the price above 1.4399 since August. The support zone ends at 1.4348 (minimum form November 2015). This means the sellers have nothing to sing and dance about until 1.4348 has been passed.

Since the price shot down out of the triangle formation, we could say that the triangle was in wave B (movement from the 1.4348 minimum to the 1.5097 maximum). If this was really a triangle, traders would be putting their target at least at around 1.3774. With my forecast line I’ve indicated the price movement after the break in the trend line. The time the target region is to be reached is between 11th and 28th November.

Since the graph is a weekly one it would we better to look for a market entry point on the daily graph. A close of the daily candle above 1.4500 means you should stave off selling. If you agree with my forecast, then before you open your trades you should calculate a lot based on the calculation of your stop and your risk at 1-2% of your deposit. i.e. the bigger the stop, the smaller the volume. With the current price pattern, stops are needed at 1.4794 or 1.5097. The smaller the stop, the larger the volume with the same amount of risk. Depending on the size of the stop, our working lot will change. If you start to have doubts about the trade, lessen the risk.


Source: https://alpari.com/
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