EUR/USD sticks to gains, still below 1.0600

EUR/USD stays on a firm note at the beginning of the week, testing highs in the upper-1.0500s although another test of the 1.0600 barrier still remains absent.

EUR/USD attention to US data, Trump

Spot has recovered from last Friday’s losses and is currently looking to extend the bounce off last week’s lows in sub-1.0500 levels (last seen in early January), always backed by a renewed albeit mild offered bias around the buck.

EUR keeps looking to the upcoming French elections as a political driver for the sentiment in the near term, with recent election polls showing far-right candidate Marine Le Pen leading with 26% of the vote intention in the first round, although she would lose in a second round.

In the data space, advanced inflation figures in the euro region for the month of February appear as the salient event this week, particularly in light of the recent pick up in prices, while speeches by President Trump (Tuesday) and Chief Yellen (Friday) should keep the buck in centre stage.

From the speculative community, EUR stays under pressure, as net shorts have climbed to 5-week tops in the week to February 21 according to the latest CFTC report.

Data wise today, advanced Spanish inflation figures expect the CPI to rise at an annualized 3.0% in February, a tad below estimates. Further data saw Private Loans expanding 2.2% YoY in January and M3 Money Supply rising 4.9% YoY during the same period.

Across the pond, Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders and the Dallas Fed index should keep the attention on the buck along with the speech by Dallas Fed R.Kaplan (voter, hawkish).

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.21% at 1.0583 facing the initial hurdle at 1.0592 (55-day sma) followed by 1.0620 (high Feb.24) and finally 1.0651 (20-day sma). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0492 (low Feb.22) would target 1.0452 (low Jan.11) en route to 1.0339 (2017 low Jan.3).

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