By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex
In the second week of April, oil quotations remain quite high though on April 5th, Brent is declining to 64.24 USD.
Earlier OPEC+ members have agreed on smooth increasing oil production May through July by 2.15 million barrels a day. From the contract, one can conclude that the preferences of increasing production are evenly spread between OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia. Previously, this country made the most effort to control supply in the global market.
May through July, Saudi Arabia will send back to the market some 1 million barrels of oil a day.
OPEC+ seems to be quite sure that the demand for energy carriers will soon restore, including thanks to air traffic recuperating, otherwise, it would think better than pouring so much oil into the market while currently, demand remains limited.
On H4, BRENT is correcting to 65.52. When it is over, we expect the trend to continue to 60. After this level is reached, we expect a link of growth to 65.30. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Its signal line escaped the histogram area and declined to zero. We expect the signal line to grow again.
On H1, the market completed a wave of decline to 62.38. At the moment, the market is trading in the fifth wave of growth to 65.52, where we expect the wave of growth to end. Then we expect another wave of declining to 60. Technically, the scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is trading under 20 today, which suggests the beginning of growth to 50. After this level is broken, growth might continue to 80.
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.