Most analysts believe S&P 500 is overbought and it will have a correction soon. What is the reason?
There is no secret that many large US companies have a tough time now amid the coronavirus pandemic. Goldman predicts a 15% EPS decline in the first quarter for S&P 500. That would be the largest drop in earnings reported by the index since 2009, when the decline was 15.7%.
Moreover, according to the Morgan Stanley, earnings will decrease by 20% this year. The guidance from corporations may show that the virus damage was devastating and it takes a long time to rebound. The business loan demand increased by 17.3% the previous week, what generally indicates the beginning of the recession. While major economies around the world take tentative steps toward reopening, it’s still to early to talk about their recovery.
Let’s have a look at the S&P 500 chart below. The price was declining from February 20 to March 23, then it reversed and went upward. Few days ago it reached the 50-day moving average and had a short correction down. So, it might continue increasing only if it breaks through the 50-day moving average. However, most analysts anticipate the upcoming falling down.