Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex
The major currency pair is pretty quiet early in a new August week and trading around 1.1820. Investors, taking advantage of the silly season, are analyzing all that’s happening and saving strengths for the future.
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is ahead and this year the event, which is quite “bombastic” and dramatic for financial markets, will be held online. The highlight of the symposium is a speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, who is expected to talk about the regulator’s monetary policy outlook. What exactly he is going to say remains an open question but his speech is expected to be very delicate in statements and careful in estimations.
The diplomatic skirmish between the USA and China continues but it’s not the thing that worries market players a lot right now, although it’s a really negative factor which should be kept in sight.
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In the H4 chart, EUR/USD is growing towards 1.1814 and may later form a new descending structure to reach 1.1743. This movement may be considered as the first correctional wave. After that, the instrument may start a new growth towards 1.1811 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1644 or even 1.1500. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: after breaking 0 to the downside, its signal line is still moving inside the histogram area, thus indicating a further downtrend.
As we can see in the H1 chart, after completing the ascending structure at 1.1815, which may be considered as a correction of last Friday’s decline, EUR/USD is expected to form a new descending structure to reach 1.1743, which is a part of the fifth structure of the descending wave. After finishing this wave, the instrument may start a new correction towards 1.1811. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 80 and such a movement implies the final stage of the correction. The indicator is expected to fall and break 50, which may result in a boost of the decline in the price chart.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.