Will the Russian Ruble Withstand the West’s “Countering Aggression” Moves?

Fundamentals

The Eurozone CPI came out Wednesday at 1.50 percent. The US Department of Energy’s Wednesday crude inventories report was rather weak. Crude stocks fell by 1,034,000 barrels, below the expected 1,000,000. This had little effect on crude prices, though.
Today, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is being released at 12:30 PM GMT. Initial jobless claims, also released today, are expected to rise by 7,000 to 241,000, compared to the previous week.
At 3:30 PM GMT, Mark Carney is speaking, and traders are likely to follow the BoE Governor’s speech.
Meanwhile, analysts are worried about a possible devaluation of the Russian ruble in light of the US Congress’s “Countering Russian Aggression Act of 2017,” which bans the purchase of Russian government bonds, which will make any carry trade transactions impossible.

Stocks

Today, a number of corporate earnings reports that could affect the US stock market come out. They include Philipp Morris and VISA, among others.
Philipp Morris is expected to decrease its EPS to $1.03, compared to the forecast of $1.10. The EPS of VISA is expected to fall to $0.79.
On the daily charts, VISA stock managed to go above the upper Bollinger band on Wednesday, although, most likely it will return to the previous price range soon. The support is at $89, near the middle Bollinger band, which may well become the target if there is a short-term drop in the company’s market capitalization.
In Russia, the most important report released is the one by Severstal.
Meanwhile, Russia's MICEX Index is still in a rather dire state. The index’s slide has taken it for a “stroll” along the lower Bollinger band. Technically, Williams %R is oversold, which may signal a short-term bounce upwards. The MACDF and the price chart are diverging slightly. The resistance on the daily charts is at 1,990.

Currency Market

As noted yesterday, the EUR/JPY pair broke through 116.50 yen and went on rising. The target may be 100 pips higher, at 118 yens. Both the MACD crossing the signal line and the price crossing the Parabolic SAR are signaling the bulls' strength. The short-term trend is still bearish until the 118 level is broken through, but some aggressive bulls may try to capitalize on bounces. Time will tell.
The AUD/NZD pair met our negative expectations, as the Aussie was unable to withstand bearish attacks and weakened against the Kiwi. Technically, the support is at 1.0684, where a 50% Fibo retracement is located. The Aussie has already tested this level. Overall, the forecast for the pair might remain moderately negative, although the bulls may counter-attack to move the price to 1.0760.

Nikolay Dudchenko, Olymp Trade Analyst

Olymp Trade Review