Fundamentals
As expected, yesterday the European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged at 0% p.a. This announcement therefore had no effect on the cost of the single European currency.
But unemployment in the United States rose – the number of initial jobless claims reached 245,000, which was 4,000 worse than the predictions.
We expect that today traders will be on the lookout for the release of the change in UK industrial output at 8:30 am GMT and Canada’s unemployment data at 12:30 pm GMT. Unemployment continues to fall, but the current consensus forecast for tomorrow, 6.6%, is a bit higher than the previous number.
Baker Hughes will release a statistic of no little importance to the oil market, the number of drilling rigs in the United States, tonight at 5:00 pm GMT.
Stocks
Overall the US stock market is ending the week on a positive note, but the Dow Jones still has not been able to conquer the 21,200 mark. Naturally, this is bad news for the bulls. Technically there is a slight divergence between the price chart and the MACD histogram, which also has a negative cast. Most likely, local rebounds will be used to enter into long positions with a short stop – below the 21,100 mark. If this boundary is crossed, we’ll see a reversal of the short-term trend and a possible fall right down to 20,400. Apart from this, it is worth noting surges in trading volume on the monthly charts and the parabolic system’s simultaneous approach to the price chart. This can be taken as a warning.
No important corporate news is expected from either US or Russian companies today.
Currency Market
Analyzing the AUD/JPY pair, we have to note that Bill Williams’ confirming buy signal has yet to appear on the mid-term weekly charts. On the daily charts, the aussie already successfully broke through the 9-MA, and the Parabolic SAR and MACD simultaneously crossed the signal line. A short-term buy signal was therefore received, and the bulls went on the attack. If the attack does not sputter out, the target will be 84 yen per Australian dollar.
The aussie is strengthening not only against the Japanese yen, but also against the British pound. On the daily charts, the GBP/AUD pair broke through the 23.6% Fibo correction (1.7240), moving toward 1.6980. Technically, it is quite likely that this target will be reached, especially since the bears gained the ability to set relatively short stops. We won't rule out that local rebounds will be used to strengthen shorts. The question is what will happen after this target is reached. We won’t rule out that the descending wave that is forming is the second trend impulse wave. It’s logical to assume that a third ascending wave could form.
Nikolay Dudchenko, Olymp Trade analyst.