We Start the Week with Reports from the Bundesbank and Russian Oil Giants

Fundamentals

Good morning! We wish you all a happy Monday and suggest that you take note of the following basic macroeconomic indicators.
Monday will not be a news-rich day, but the Bundesbank’s monthly report comes out at 10:00 am GMT. The main bank of the country with the Eurozone’s leading economy will present its view of the overall economic situation.
The unemployment figure for the Russian Federation will come out at 1:00 pm GMT. You’ll recall that the last figure was 5.4%. The current figure has remained fairly stable over the last year. No significant improvements are therefore expected in this area, but one must admit that the situation looks a little better than in the first and second quarters of 2016.

Stocks

Among corporate news, Russia’s oil sector will be of interest – Bashneft and Transneft issue their reports on Monday. As for American companies, we’d take note of Agilent Technologies, a medical equipment producer that is traded on the NYSE and has a turnover of about US$7 billion.
The US stock market edged up on Thursday and Friday of last week, attempting to regain its losses from May 17, 2017, which might be called “black,” since a similar pattern has not been seen on the DJIA since March of last year. Graphically, on the daily charts the index is in a horizontal corridor at 20400-21000 points. To be honest, we suspect that the bears have not yet gained the upper hand, and we’ll continue to see the decline of America’s oldest indicator.
Apple shares are forming what looks like an inverted flag which, again, is a signal of a possible reversal and a continuation of the asset’s downward movement. The intersection of the MACD lines and the convergence of the +/-DM lines (the lines have not yet intersected!) favor a continued decline. Consequently, we’d advise waiting for confirmation before opening short positions.

Currency Market

The CAD/CHF pair is in a descending price channel. Since the pair is near the price channel's lower boundary, there may be a technical bounce and a return to the resistance line at 0.7300. More aggressive traders might try trading up to this level and then reversing and turning bearish. Cautious traders had better sit on the sidelines or very carefully trade down until reversal signals are received.
According to Elliott's wave theory, the EUR/CAD pair may be in the last, fifth trend impulse wave. If this is the case, a correction wave structure will probably appear soon. Until reversal signals, from an oscillator for example, appear, it's entirely reasonable to trade up on the pair. The target might be 1.5260, where a 161.8% Fibo correction is located.

Nikolay Dudchenko, Olymp Trade analyst.

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