This Friday All Anyone Needs is the Non-Farm

Fundamentals

Graeme Wheeler, governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, spoke yesterday. The RBNZ governor said that New Zealand's financial system remains strong, but the country’s economy faces new challenges. Mr. Wheeler's full speech is available at the RBNZ's website. The kiwi lost about 20 points on the governor's statements.
The UK’s industrial PMI came out at 8:30 am GMT yesterday. The number, 56.7, was slightly better than the predicted 56.5.
ADP’s employment report came out at 12:15 pm GMT. The number hit 253,000. At almost the same time the number of initial jobless claims was published. It rose to 248,000.
Traders’ confidence in an interest rate increase at the next Fed meeting rose on the strong data. Analysts predict an 88.2% probability that the rate will increase.
Data on US unemployment comes out today, but traders’ attention, of course, will be riveted on the Non-Farm Payrolls. As usual, the indicator will be published at 12:30 pm GMT. The number is expected to be 186,000.

Stocks

No significant corporate news was published yesterday.
The situation on the US stock market still looks stable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for three days in a row, successfully closing the May 25, 2017 gap. Technically the indicator approached the 9-day moving average, which is at 20,980. If there is a top down breakthrough, we should expect the index to fall further. The next target might be 20,900, where a 38.2% Fibo correction is located.
The Russian stock market is still in a deep swoon. The MICEX Index fell below 1900 points yesterday. Note that the 9-EMA was broken through on the monthly charts. Consequently, we can assume a long-term trend reversal and the bears’ arrival on the market. We anticipate that local upward rebounds will be used to re-open shorts.

Currency Market

Today we’ll analyze the CAD/JPY currency pair, which we last discussed on May 10. We’ll check our forecasts and try to answer the question what to expect next.
Technically, as we already noted, the bears won the day locally, i.e., the confirming downward signal that we wrote about right in mid-May was corroborated. The pair fell, testing a price of 80.5 yen per Canadian dollar. But the bears were unable to hold on to their victory, and the bulls successfully attacked, taking the loonie to 83.5, after which the decline resumed. A graphic double top with confirmation at 81.5 yen is now forming on the daily charts. If the bears can break through this line, we may see the loonie at 78.
We also analyzed the USD/SGD pair. We talked about indirect signs of a possible reversal of the short-term trend, which is what happened on the daily charts. The pair broke through the 9-day MA top down, later landing below the 1.3900 mark. Technically, the trend remains bearish with a lower boundary at 1.3750. However, we would point out to the bears that the MACD reversed and headed up to the zero mark. Along with everything else, we see the intersection and return of the Williams %R to trading territory. We are therefore anticipating a local rebound up. The target might be the middle Bollinger Band, i.e., 1.3930.

Nikolay Dudchenko, Olymp Trade analyst

Olymp Trade Review